UBS has adjusted its view on Avanza Bank Holding AB (NASDAQ:AZA), lifting the stock's rating from Sell to Neutral and maintaining a price target of SEK 320. The change reflects what UBS describes as an easing of earlier concerns over valuation, pressure on net interest income and slower trading volumes.
In updating its model, UBS raised its 2026 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate for Avanza by 6%. The bank cited improved expectations for net brokerage income, higher currency-related income and lower cost assumptions as drivers of the EPS lift. UBS now projects EPS growth of 3% in 2026, accelerating to 9% in 2027 and 10% in 2028.
UBS expects 2026 to bring only limited growth in two of Avanza's main revenue lines - net brokerage income and net interest income. Those modest increases are forecast to be partly offset by stronger fund commission revenue and gains from currency-related income.
Looking further ahead, UBS assumes stable interest rates will allow net interest income to resume growth that more closely tracks the expansion of savings capital. The note refers to Avanza's own target of 15% annual growth in savings capital through 2030 as a framework for longer-term net interest income improvement.
Strategic product development is also highlighted. UBS noted that Avanza plans to introduce fully digital discretionary mandates in 2026, following its acquisition of Sigmastocks, completed on July 1, 2025. UBS expects the discretionary offering to help Avanza retain customer assets that previously migrated to competitors because of the bank's prior lack of a discretionary service.
On valuation, UBS calculates that the SEK 320 price target equates to about 17.7 times its 2027 estimated price-to-earnings ratio. The firm observed that Avanza is trading toward the lower end of its longer-term consensus next-twelve-months P/E range, even as indicators such as Swedish consumer sentiment and the savings market outlook for 2026 appear supportive.
Key context and next steps:
- UBS upgraded the rating to Neutral while keeping its SEK 320 price target.
- 2026 EPS forecast raised by 6%; UBS sees EPS growth of 3% in 2026, 9% in 2027 and 10% in 2028.
- Avanza plans to launch fully digital discretionary mandates in 2026 after acquiring Sigmastocks on July 1, 2025.
Market implications:
- The move has relevance for the banking and broader financial services sector, particularly firms focused on savings, brokerage and digital wealth offerings.
- Valuation dynamics and interest-rate sensitivity remain central to how investors assess regional savings-focused platforms.