Futures connected to Canada’s main exchange rose modestly on Thursday as investors digested a fresh batch of corporate earnings and awaited further economic signals from the United States later in the week.
By 07:43 ET (12:43 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was up 3 points, or 0.2%. On Wednesday the broader S&P/TSX composite index slipped marginally to 33,254.19, stepping back from an intraday record high that had been established earlier in the session. The composite had recorded an all-time closing peak on Tuesday.
Sector performance across the Canadian market was mixed. A notable retreat in shares of Shopify following guidance for weaker free cash flow margins weighed on the domestic technology cohort, while declines were also recorded among real estate and financial stocks. Offsetting those losses, the commodities-focused components of the index saw support from gains in materials and energy names, which benefited from higher crude and precious metals prices.
U.S. marketplaces also opened with futures on the uptick. At 07:55 ET, Dow Jones futures were trading about 128 points, or 0.3%, higher. S&P 500 futures had gained roughly 21 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up approximately 73 points, or 0.3%.
Despite the strength in overnight futures, the main U.S. averages had ended lower on Wednesday, halting a three-day advance. The reversal followed a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report that outpaced economists’ forecasts and prompted traders to reassess the timetable for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate reduction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day down 0.1% but remained above the psychologically notable 50,000 level it had surpassed earlier in the week. The S&P 500 edged down slightly and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.
Labor data and Fed outlook
Wednesday’s U.S. Labor Department release showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by 130,000 in the last month, a result that exceeded expectations and coincided with the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%. The stronger-than-forecast payrolls print reinforced views that the U.S. economy retains resilience, but it also reduced the likelihood of an imminent Fed rate cut, prompting market participants to pare back bets on near-term policy easing.
The report contained significant downward revisions to past months, which highlighted areas of weakness in employment over the prior year. Analysts at ING noted that although job additions in January outpaced estimates, the revisions suggested persistent job losses across a number of private sectors when excluding gains in leisure and hospitality, private healthcare, and government.
Market participants were set to receive additional labor-market cues on Thursday in the form of weekly initial jobless claims. Investors are also focused on Friday’s consumer price index report for more information on inflation trends and potential implications for the Fed’s rate path.
Earnings season: mixed headlines
The fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season has moved past its midpoint, and the aggregate picture has been favorable: companies have been broadly delivering results, analyst revisions have generally trended upward, and earnings growth has remained in double digits. Yet individual company outcomes continue to create dispersion across sectors.
Looking ahead, Arista Networks and Applied Materials were scheduled to report results after the U.S. market close. One of the notable early movers in the report flow was Cisco Systems, which disclosed a quarterly gross margin that fell short of analysts’ projections late Wednesday. That surprise pushed Cisco shares sharply lower in premarket trading.
Cisco’s margin miss was partially attributed to supply dynamics for memory chips. A surge in spending on data centers to support artificial intelligence workloads has tightened global supplies of memory processors and driven prices higher. Cisco’s routers and switches frequently rely on these memory components, and the shortage has contributed to margin pressure for the networking equipment maker.
Conversely, McDonald’s reported results that beat Wall Street estimates for both fourth-quarter global comparable sales and profit. The fast-food operator benefited from promotional meal deals and marketing efforts that attracted budget-conscious customers in the United States, while demand in markets such as Australia and Britain remained steady.
Commodities, geopolitics and market flows
Precious metals retreated slightly after the robust U.S. payrolls print reduced market expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. Gold and silver prices were lower as traders marked down the probability of near-term easing, although losses were capped by lingering safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States.
Using CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets priced in a 92.5% chance that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in March and a 79.1% probability of a similar outcome in April. The stronger jobs data also supported a rebound in the U.S. dollar, adding downward pressure on metal prices.
Oil reversed earlier gains and slipped into negative territory after the International Energy Agency updated its demand outlook for 2026. The IEA revised its forecast for annual world oil-demand growth moderately lower to 850,000 barrels per day, citing the effects of higher prices and broader economic uncertainty. The agency indicated China would remain the largest contributor to demand growth, albeit at a pace below its recent decade average.
Earlier in the session crude had rallied as tensions between Washington and Tehran elevated concerns about potential supply disruptions. Reports that Washington was considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the region had helped add a risk premium to prices. While both Iran and the U.S. had suggested some progress in talks over the weekend, no decisive resolution appeared to have emerged on Tehran’s nuclear activities, keeping markets on edge.
At the time of reporting, Brent futures were down 0.3% at $69.17 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.2% to $64.51 a barrel. Both benchmarks had risen roughly 1% on Wednesday amid the heightened geopolitical risk premium.
Near-term focus
Investors will continue to parse corporate earnings for signs of margin resilience and revenue momentum, while U.S. economic data releases later in the week - including weekly jobless claims and the consumer price index - are expected to play a central role in shaping market perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s policy timing. In Canada, the interplay between technology weakness and commodity strength will likely determine near-term moves in the S&P/TSX composite.
Given the mix of earnings results, labor-market signals, and geopolitical developments, markets remain attentive to shifts in both macroeconomic and sector-specific dynamics that could influence asset prices across equities, fixed income, and commodities.