Futures linked to Canada’s principal equity index were lower Thursday morning as investors evaluated minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting that contained language market participants read as potentially hawkish.
By 06:32 ET (11:32 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract had eased by 5 points, or 0.3%.
That pullback followed a solid rally in the cash market on Wednesday, when the broader S&P/TSX composite index climbed 1.5% to 33,389.73. The prior-session advance reflected a rebound in technology names on Wall Street and a noticeable lift from commodities exposure within the Canadian benchmark.
Commodities and materials supported gains
Gold’s jump, attributed to safe-haven flows amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, bolstered the materials sector - a group that includes metal miners - which rose 2.8% in the most recent full trading session. The increase in bullion’s price provided a direct tailwind for commodity-linked Canadian stocks.
Defense-related equities in Canada also received support as reports circulated that Ottawa is considering expanded purchases of domestically produced arms as part of efforts to reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers.
U.S. futures move lower
Across the border, U.S. stock index futures retraced some gains. At 06:45 ET, Dow Jones Futures were down 145 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 Futures had dropped 17 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures were lower by 82 points, or 0.3%.
Those moves came after all three major U.S. averages advanced in the regular session on Wednesday, supported by a rally in shares of Nvidia. In the cash market, the S&P 500 closed up nearly 0.6%, the NASDAQ Composite added 0.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%.
Fed minutes show policymakers divided
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed unanimous support among participants for keeping the policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. However, committee members diverged on the appropriate path forward. Several officials warned that inflation could take longer to return to the Fed’s 2% target than markets currently expect.
According to the minutes, "several" policymakers indicated that a rate increase could become warranted if inflation persists above target for an extended period. That tone contrasted with a general market view that both inflation and interest rates would ease as the year progresses.
Policymakers also flagged uncertainty stemming from the rapid expansion of the artificial intelligence industry, with members split on whether that technological growth will exert upward or downward pressure on inflation.
Economic calendar and market sensitivities
Thursday’s data slate included the weekly initial jobless claims figure and the December trade balance. ING noted that a narrower-than-expected December trade deficit would boost expectations for a solid fourth-quarter 2025 GDP reading and could offer the dollar some short-term support.
Market participants were watching these reports for indications of near-term demand and currency influence that could interact with the Fed’s messaging.
Corporate spotlight - Walmart
Walmart was in focus on Thursday as the retail giant prepared to release fourth-quarter results and an outlook for 2026 later in the trading session. As the world’s largest retailer by market value, Walmart’s earnings are widely viewed as a barometer for U.S. consumer health. Its results arrive amid signs of strain on U.S. retail spending linked to persistent inflation, and the company’s report will help set the tone ahead of upcoming quarterly releases from other big-box retailers.
Safe-haven flows support bullion
Spot gold inched higher on Thursday, building on a strong prior session as investors weighed persistent geopolitical risks. At 06:58 ET, spot gold had advanced 0.1% to $4,984.53 an ounce, while U.S. Gold Futures dipped 0.1% to $5,003.64 per ounce. The metal had jumped 2.1% on Wednesday, recovering much of the early-week losses as geopolitical concerns remained a key driver of safe-haven demand.
Market watchers cited elevated tensions between the United States and Iran, including worries about maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled nuclear diplomacy, as sustaining bullion demand.
Oil prices react to Middle East activity
Crude oil continued to climb on Thursday amid reports of heightened military activity in the Middle East, reinforcing fears of potential supply disruptions from a region central to global flows. Brent futures rose 1.4% to $71.35 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1.5% to $66.05 a barrel. Both benchmarks had settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, registering their highest settlements since January 30.
Heightened military and naval activity in the Persian Gulf was cited in media reports as underpinning market perceptions of supply vulnerability. Expectations for any loosening of sanctions on Russian energy exports faded following Russia-Ukraine talks that produced no breakthrough.
Further support for crude came from industry data showing a tightening in U.S. supply. The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by about 609,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 13. Official government figures from the Energy Information Administration were scheduled for release later in the day.
Market participants entered the session balancing central-bank caution, geopolitical developments that favored commodities and energy, and the approaching slate of corporate and economic data that could influence near-term positioning.