Futures connected to Canada’s principal exchange hovered marginally below the flatline on Thursday as traders absorbed market implications of a worsening conflict in Iran. By 08:01 ET (12:01 GMT), the S&P/TSX 60 standard futures contract had ticked down by 1 point, representing a 0.1% decline.
On Wednesday, Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX composite index retreated 0.5% to close at 33,119.83, reversing two days of small gains. Within the index, the materials group dropped 1% as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured gold and related metal mining stocks, a notable component of the resource-heavy TSX. Conversely, the energy sector outperformed, advancing 2.6% as oil prices climbed.
U.S. futures extend losses
Across the border, U.S. stock futures moved lower after crude prices briefly reclaimed the $100-a-barrel level. At 08:16 ET, the Dow futures contract was down 376 points, or 0.8%; S&P 500 futures had fallen 41 points, or 0.6%; and Nasdaq 100 futures were off 144 points, or 0.6%.
Market nervousness followed a surge in tanker-related threats and disruptions to shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, has seen container carriers pause sailings because of safety concerns for crews and difficulty obtaining insurance. Merchant vessels have been struck in the vicinity, heightening fears of constrained oil movements.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a third vessel had been hit by an unknown projectile, after two other ships were struck and left burning off Iraq’s coast. In response to escalating threats, Iraq and Oman have taken steps to close oil terminals.
The International Energy Agency characterized the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as producing the largest supply disruption the global oil market has experienced. The IEA, which announced its biggest-ever release of strategic reserves earlier in the week, also reduced its annual supply forecast as part of a broader reassessment tied to the conflict.
Oil volatility and market implications
Brent crude was last quoted up 6.8% at $98.22 a barrel, after briefly topping $100 in Asian trading. Earlier in the week the global benchmark had climbed as high as nearly $120 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 6.6%, trading at $93.00 a barrel.
These sharp price swings in energy have rippled through global markets. Concerns that elevated fuel costs could reignite inflation pressures have prompted investors to reassess policy expectations for major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Heightened inflation risks have contributed to higher bond yields, which in turn have taken some shine off equities.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level so far this year, a move that underscored investor anxiety about how an oil shock could affect U.S. businesses and household budgets. Despite that slump, the S&P 500 finished only slightly in the red for the session and the Nasdaq Composite eked out a gain, supported in part by stronger-than-expected results from Oracle and a bullish outlook related to artificial-intelligence demand in data centers.
U.S. consumer price data for February matched expectations, but the sudden jump in oil has darkened the near-term inflation outlook, complicating the path for prospective interest-rate reductions.
Corporate earnings and sector notes
Traders were also focused on forthcoming quarterly results from Adobe ahead of its earnings release. Adobe, the maker of Photoshop and other creative applications, is navigating investor concerns about how new artificial-intelligence tools might reshape demand across the software industry. Once widely viewed as an industry tailwind, the rise of AI-driven capabilities has more recently fueled investor unease about potential disruption to a range of software-as-a-service businesses.
Adobe shares have fallen more than 17% year-to-date, reflecting that investor unease. Nevertheless, the company has been actively embedding AI into its products, including tools such as Firefly and Adobe Express, with the aim of letting users more quickly create images and videos inside its Creative Cloud ecosystem. Management has presented a fiscal 2026 outlook that exceeded Wall Street consensus, projecting full-year revenue between $25.90 billion and $26.10 billion and earnings per share of $23.30 to $23.50.
Elsewhere, Dollar General saw its shares decline after the company’s forecast for annual comparable-store sales fell short of investor expectations.
Gold, the dollar and safe-haven flows
Gold prices moved slightly lower as persistent conflict in the region and surging energy costs fed inflation concerns. Spot gold declined 0.1% to $5,169.94 an ounce, while gold futures were largely unchanged at $5,177.11 per ounce.
Bullion has generally traded in a range between $5,000 and $5,200 an ounce, pressured this week by the oil-driven increase in inflation expectations. That dynamic has raised the possibility that central banks may delay or scale back plans for near-term rate cuts, supporting a stronger dollar. A firmer greenback tends to weigh on gold because it raises the price for overseas buyers; the dollar index was last up about 0.2%, near a two-month high.
Summary and market context
Markets are balancing two conflicting currents: commodity-driven strength for energy companies as crude climbs, and weakening demand for materials and gold in the face of a stronger dollar and higher yields. The escalation of hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz and related shipping incidents has injected a renewed layer of risk into global energy flows, prompting supply assessments from agencies such as the IEA and market recalibrations that have pushed futures in North America lower.
For investors, the evolving picture is one of heightened volatility across sectors closely tied to commodity prices and corporate profitability, particularly within energy, materials, and parts of the technology and retail landscapes exposed to consumer spending shifts.
What to watch next
- Progress and repercussions of the Iran conflict and its impact on tanker movements and terminal operations in Iraq and Oman.
- Subsequent IEA assessments or further strategic reserve releases that could alter supply expectations.
- Upcoming corporate reports, notably Adobe’s results and guidance, for signals about demand and AI-related monetization strategies.