Truist Securities has reshuffled its fintech recommendations, shifting its view on BILL Holdings and Global-e Online as market dynamics and growth drivers evolve across payments and cross-border commerce.
In its latest review, the firm downgraded BILL from Buy to Hold. Truist cited a deceleration in revenue growth for the company, expecting core revenue expansion to slow from the mid-teens to the low-teens next year. The brokerage pointed to increasing competitive pressure from rivals including Brex, Ramp and Fiserv, and said payment monetization will become more difficult as AI-driven payment optimization and the emergence of stablecoin infrastructure alter the payments landscape.
Truist also indicated that a potential takeover - previously discussed as a conceivable catalyst for BILL - is now less likely, given the current uncertainty around software company valuations in the AI era. The firm noted recent developments at BILL that raise execution questions, including a substantial workforce reduction and departures among senior executives.
Alongside the downgrade, Truist reduced its price target on BILL to $38 from $45. At the same time, the brokerage left in place its forecasts for margin improvement and earnings growth driven by cost controls and share repurchase activity.
By contrast, Truist upgraded Global-e Online to Buy, pointing to stronger long-term growth prospects tied to rising cross-border e-commerce demand and a faster pace of merchant additions. The brokerage highlighted expectations that gross merchandise volume originating from Shopify's Managed Markets offering will expand markedly over the coming years, projecting that it will quadruple over the next several years.
Truist said Global-e's recent acquisition of Passport Global enhances the companys fulfillment capabilities and shipping optimization, strengthening its competitive position. The firm expects Global-e's gross merchandise volume to grow roughly 30% annually in 2027 and 2028, with Managed Markets accounting for an increasing share of that expansion. Truist raised its price target on Global-e to $39 from $34 and projects the company's earnings per share will grow at a compound annual rate of about 52% between 2026 and 2028.
The brokerage's moves reflect a recommendation that investors reposition within the fintech sector as competitive forces and growth trajectories change. Truist's adjustments pair a more cautious stance toward a payments-focused software player showing signs of slowing momentum with a more optimistic view on a company positioned to capture accelerating cross-border commerce.
Key data points reiterated by Truist:
- BILL downgraded to Hold; price target lowered to $38 from $45.
- Truist anticipates BILL's core revenue growth to moderate from mid-teens to low-teens next year.
- Global-e upgraded to Buy; price target raised to $39 from $34; expected GMV growth of about 30% annually in 2027 and 2028.
- Truist projects Global-e EPS to grow at an approximate 52% CAGR from 2026 to 2028.
Investors should note the brokerage's rationale centers on evolving competitive dynamics in payments, the potential impact of AI and stablecoin technology on payment monetization, and expanding cross-border e-commerce opportunities that may benefit platforms with enhanced fulfillment capabilities.