Stock Markets February 9, 2026

Treasury Wine and RNDC Resolve California Dispute; H1 EBIT Guidance Raised

Winemaker to repurchase California-held inventory and lifts first-half earnings outlook above prior range

By Sofia Navarro
Treasury Wine and RNDC Resolve California Dispute; H1 EBIT Guidance Raised

Treasury Wine Estates has reached a settlement with U.S. distributor Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC) over the shutdown of RNDC’s California operations last September. The agreement calls for Treasury Wine to repurchase inventory held in California and follows an upward revision to first-half earnings before interest and taxes to approximately A$236 million, above its earlier A$225 million-A$235 million guidance.

Key Points

  • Treasury Wine and RNDC have settled their dispute over RNDC’s closure of California operations, with Treasury Wine repurchasing inventory held in California for its original sale value less a confidential settlement amount - impacting the wine distribution channel.
  • Treasury Wine raised its first-half EBIT outlook to about A$236 million, modestly above its prior guidance range of A$225 million to A$235 million, improving near-term earnings expectations.
  • Following RNDC’s divestment of certain markets to Reyes Beverage Group, RNDC’s distribution role is expected to account for under 20% of Treasury Americas’ net sales revenue, altering the company’s U.S. sales mix and distribution exposure.

Treasury Wine Estates on Tuesday confirmed a settlement with Republic National Distributing Company regarding RNDC’s closure of its California operations in September. Under the terms, Treasury Wine will repurchase portfolio inventory held by RNDC in California - covering stock designated as Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective - at the original sale price, adjusted downward by a confidential settlement amount designed to compensate RNDC for the effects of the closure.

The company also updated its first-half earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) outlook, saying it now expects around A$236 million ($167.35 million) - a small increase above its previous guidance range of A$225 million to A$235 million.

Chief Executive Sam Fischer noted that RNDC’s exit from California had a notable effect on the company’s first-half results. Treasury Wine had previously disclosed in June of the prior year that RNDC intended to withdraw from its California operations while preserving the distribution relationship covering the remaining 24 U.S. states.

The settlement focuses on the California-held inventory and preserves Treasury Wine’s right to reclaim that stock for its original sale value, subject to the confidential deduction. The company did not disclose the size of that confidential amount.

Separately, following RNDC’s announced divestment of several markets to Reyes Beverage Group, the distribution arrangement is expected to represent less than 20% of Treasury Americas’ net sales revenue. The company has indicated that distribution in the other U.S. states covered by the RNDC partnership remains unaffected by the California closure.


Financial context and currency

Treasury Wine’s revised EBIT outlook raises its midpoint above the earlier guide. The company provided the Australian dollar figures and noted the exchange rate used in reporting - $1 equals 1.4102 Australian dollars - as a reference for the converted U.S. dollar amount of the revised outlook.

The settlement and guidance update address the consequences of RNDC’s market changes in California and the reallocation of inventory held in that jurisdiction. The confidential element of the settlement means the precise adjustment to the repurchase value is not publicly disclosed.

Risks

  • The confidential component of the settlement reduces transparency on the final financial adjustment related to repurchased inventory - this creates uncertainty in the precise hit or benefit to reported earnings and balance sheet figures (affects corporate financial reporting and investor analysis).
  • The earlier closure of RNDC’s California operations had a significant negative impact on first-half performance, highlighting execution and distribution disruption risks when a major distributor withdraws from a regional market (affects sales and operations in the beverage distribution sector).
  • Changes to the distribution footprint following RNDC’s divestments could shift revenue concentration and channel dynamics for Treasury Americas - the distribution contribution is expected to fall below 20% of net sales, altering sales mix and operational reliance on alternate distribution partners.

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