Tradeweb Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:TW) shares moved higher, rising 2.5% on Thursday, following the company’s announcement of a strategic partnership with Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market.
Under the collaboration, Tradeweb will make a minority investment in Kalshi and begin integrating Kalshi’s prediction-market data and analytics into Tradeweb’s global electronic trading platform. The companies described the effort as an initial phase focused on delivering real-time event probabilities into Tradeweb’s existing rates and credit marketplaces.
The planned integration will make Kalshi’s probabilistic event outputs accessible through multiple channels on Tradeweb’s platform - including graphical user interfaces, application programming interfaces (APIs), and downloadable data tools. The partners said this approach is intended to provide institutional clients with forward-looking signals to assist in risk management and decision-making.
Tradeweb and Kalshi also said they will explore building an institutional-focused portal for event contracts. That work would concentrate on standardized contracts tied to macroeconomic releases, Federal Reserve policy actions, political elections, and other policy outcomes, with an emphasis on tailoring contracts for institutional use.
The announcement frames the move as a response to growing institutional demand for forward-looking, data-driven indicators. As Tradeweb described it, prediction markets can offer probabilistic insights on outcomes that may help investors navigate complex market dynamics. "Prediction markets are increasingly becoming a key part of the trading landscape, and have the potential to become an indicator for institutions to dynamically assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively," said Billy Hult, CEO of Tradeweb.
Tradeweb highlighted the scale of its existing franchise in describing the planned integration. The firm said it facilitates more than $2.6 trillion in notional value traded on average per day and serves over 3,000 institutional clients across electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets.
Summary of the deal:
- Tradeweb will take a minority stake in Kalshi and integrate Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities into its platform.
- The integration will be available via user interfaces, APIs, and data-download tools, initially in rates and credit markets.
- The firms will explore a dedicated institutional portal for standardized event contracts covering macroeconomic, policy, and political outcomes.