Stock Markets February 20, 2026

Toymakers Weigh Options After Supreme Court Nixes Emergency Tariffs

Companies that sold potential refund claims celebrate immediate payouts while confronting legal and financial uncertainty over longer-term recovery

By Hana Yamamoto
Toymakers Weigh Options After Supreme Court Nixes Emergency Tariffs

The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to invalidate broad emergency tariffs delivered prompt cash to importers that had sold their refund claims to outside investors, but left unresolved how and whether government refunds will be distributed. Importers and investors are now recalibrating, balancing upfront payments already received against potentially costly and protracted legal processes to secure full refunds.

Key Points

  • Supreme Court invalidation of emergency tariffs gave immediate payouts to importers that had sold refund claims to investors, while leaving the refund process to lower courts.
  • Companies like Kids2 and Basic Fun are evaluating legal and commercial responses - preserving refund rights versus reinvesting upfront proceeds - in an uncertain environment.
  • The ruling is spurring renewed market interest in buying and selling claims tied to potential tariff refunds, with expected upward pressure on claim pricing; sectors affected include consumer goods, retail, and financial markets that trade cash-flow rights.

The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that struck down the emergency tariffs has given some importers an immediate financial boost - particularly those that had earlier sold potential refund claims to investors. Yet the decision stopped short of laying out a clear path for recovering taxes paid, leaving companies that rely heavily on imports to assess next steps amid legal and political uncertainty.

Mark Mintman, chief financial officer of Atlanta-based toy and infant products maker Kids2, described the development as a modest victory in an unsettled situation. Kids2, which imports about 95% of its products from China, received $2 million from a Boston hedge fund in return for a claim tied to $15 million in tariffs the company had paid to U.S. customs through September of last year. Mintman said the company is now consulting with counsel to determine how best to preserve any refund rights.

The Supreme Court decision left the mechanics of refunds to lower courts, creating a path that is uncertain and potentially costly. Legal advisers and corporate counsel say questions remain about whether refunds will be issued and, if so, how importers would claim them. Amy Pasacreta, an attorney on Orrick’s restructuring team, emphasized the open-ended nature of the process and warned that resolution could take "months or years." She said that with Friday’s decision, market interest in buying and selling claims is likely to grow and that pricing for those claims could rise.

Under the types of agreements increasingly used in this market, importers assign the rights to possible future refunds to investors in exchange for an upfront payment that represents a fraction of the claim’s face value. If tariffs had been upheld, importers would retain the upfront payment and investors would receive nothing. With the Supreme Court ruling invalidating the tariffs, companies that completed such deals keep the money they received, and any government refunds ultimately distributed would go to the investors who bought the claims.

For some executives, the immediate liquidity provided by such arrangements is attractive. Jay Foreman, chief executive of Basic Fun - a maker of brands that include Tonka trucks, Care Bears and K’Nex - said he is considering selling his refund claim if the discount fee is reasonable. Foreman noted that taking such cash now could enable immediate reinvestment into the business and, should tariffs remain off toys, allow the company to work with retailers to lower prices quickly.

Observers point out that this is another instance of markets forming around predictable future cash flows. The deals mirror other financial structures that monetize expected payments, such as selling rights to structured lawsuit settlements or lottery annuities. Pasacreta cited historic examples of similar monetizations and said market participants have already been in contact with potential buyers and sellers in light of the court’s decision.

But substantial uncertainties remain. The Supreme Court ruling did not spell out the procedures for refunding collected duties, and President Donald Trump said he would seek other avenues to collect the taxes. That statement injects additional ambiguity into how much importers might ultimately recover and over what time frame. Pasacreta said these unresolved questions - whether refunds will be issued, how exporters or importers might claim them, and how long the process could take - underlie both the renewed interest in claim trading and the expectation that prices for such claims will move higher.

Companies that hedged by selling claims have already realized the upfront payments, but they still face decisions about preserving legal rights and how to deploy the funds. Some executives are weighing immediate reinvestment in product, distribution and retail pricing strategies as ways to translate that cash into competitive advantage. Others will monitor legal developments and potential government responses before acting.


Takeaway - The court ruling provided short-term cash winners among importers that sold refund claims but left the longer-term picture - including whether and how refunds will be returned and whether the government will seek alternative collection methods - unsettled. That ambiguity is driving renewed trading interest in claims and could push claim prices upward while leaving importers to navigate legal costs and strategic deployment of the funds they have already received.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over whether refunds will be issued and how importers would claim them - this affects importers, retail pricing, and balance sheets of consumer goods companies.
  • Potential government actions to pursue alternative ways to collect the taxes, as indicated by President Trump's statement, which could reduce or delay recoveries for importers.
  • Pursuing refunds through lower courts could be complicated and costly, creating legal expense and timing risk for companies deciding whether to seek recovery or accept upfront payments.

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