The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) shares climbed 3.7% on Friday after Needham analyst Laura Martin kept a Buy rating and a $32.00 price target following conversations with advertising technology executives in New York. Martin's follow-up on the company centered on the ongoing public disagreement with Publicis and the potential revenue consequences of that dispute.
Martin characterized the disagreement as a struggle over economic splits that she expects will be brief. In her assessment, the fiscal hit to The Trade Desk appears constrained based on available contract structures and client relationships.
Her financial read on the situation relies on the size of Publicis relative to The Trade Desk's reported revenue. Martin estimates that Publicis represented roughly 10% of The Trade Desk's $2.9 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, which translates to about $290 million. She then applied her view of client-level contract arrangements to refine the potential at-risk amount.
Specifically, Martin believes approximately 70% of Publicis' brand clients have joint service agreements directly with The Trade Desk. Using that share, she calculates that only about $87 million of the $290 million would be at risk if those agency-led arrangements were to be disrupted. The Trade Desk had disclosed in 2025 that joint service agreements make up more than 60% of its reported revenue, and those direct brand contracts commonly include volume discounts tied to minimum spending thresholds on the company's platform.
Martin noted that such direct contracts and their associated volume-based incentives are likely to be renewed provided The Trade Desk continues to offer transparency to clients. That contractual dynamic underpins her view that the Publicis issue should have limited financial impact.
Beyond the Publicis matter, Martin cited several growth avenues that support her Buy rating: potential new advertising revenue from OpenAI's advertising units, expansion in connected TV (CTV), and growth in retail media network segments. She also highlighted The Trade Desk's strategic position serving large global brands as a supporting factor.
Martin further observed that the stock's decline in 2026 and over the prior 12 months has already priced in certain market concerns, including strained ties with advertising holding companies and executive turnover at the firm. Those developments, in her view, are reflected in the current share price and factored into her recommendation.
Note: The article presents the analyst's estimates and company disclosures as described during Martin's industry discussions. It does not introduce additional data beyond those statements.