Stock Markets March 11, 2026

The Gym Group lifts FY26 outlook after beating FY25 EBITDA estimates

Budget gym chain reports stronger trading, membership gains and an upgraded guidance to the top of analyst expectations

By Avery Klein
The Gym Group lifts FY26 outlook after beating FY25 EBITDA estimates

The Gym Group reported FY25 EBITDA less normalised rent ahead of consensus and has increased its FY26 guidance to the top end of analysts' forecasts after continued revenue and membership growth. The company is expanding its estate, plans further new openings funded by free cash flow, and expects modest like-for-like revenue growth with site cost inflation concentrated in the first half of FY26.

Key Points

  • FY25 EBITDA less normalised rent of A356.7m beat the A355.5m consensus and rose 19% year-on-year; revenues grew 8% to A3245m with 3% like-for-like growth.
  • Memberships reached 945,000 (up 4%) and average revenue per member per month rose 4% to A321.60; the estate expanded to 260 sites with 16 openings in FY25.
  • FY26 guidance raised to the top end of market forecasts at A360.7m for EBITDA less normalised rent; plans at least 20 new sites in FY26 and approximately 75 over three years, funded from free cash flow.

The Gym Group said Wednesday that its FY25 performance surpassed market expectations on EBITDA less normalised rent and that it is raising guidance for FY26 to the top end of analyst forecasts. Management reported a mix of revenue growth, improved membership metrics and a continuing programme of site openings.

For FY25, the budget gym operator delivered EBITDA less normalised rent of A356.7m, higher than the consensus estimate of A355.5m and up 19% compared with the prior year. Total revenues rose 8% to A3245m, while like-for-like revenue increased 3%.

Memberships expanded by 4% year-on-year to 945,000 members, and average revenue per member per month climbed 4% to A321.60. The Gym Group added 16 new sites during FY25, taking its network to 260 locations at year end.

Net debt decreased by A32m on a pre-IFRS-16 basis, leaving net debt at A359m at the end of the period.


Looking ahead, the company has lifted its FY26 expectation for EBITDA less normalised rent to the top end of market forecasts, citing a target of A360.7m. That sits 1% above the current consensus of A360.1m.

Trading in January and February showed momentum, with revenues 9% higher year-on-year and like-for-like growth of 3% during that period. On capacity expansion, the company now plans to open at least 20 new sites in FY26, adjusting prior guidance of around 20 sites, and has set a target of approximately 75 new openings over the next three years. Management said these openings will be financed from free cash flow.

For FY26, the Gym Group expects like-for-like revenue growth of 3% and anticipates like-for-like site cost inflation of 3% to 4%, with inflationary pressure weighted toward the first half of the year.

Return on invested capital at mature sites improved to 27% from 25% in the prior period. When excluding 13 workforce-dependent gyms, the return on invested capital rises to 30%.

During FY25 the company enlarged its network by 6%. It is guiding for 8% network growth in FY26 and is targeting a compound annual growth rate of 9% across FY25-28.


These results and the revised FY26 guidance reflect a continuation of steady revenue and membership growth, targeted estate expansion funded through operating cash flow, and a modest uplift in profitability metrics at mature locations.

Risks

  • Like-for-like site cost inflation of 3% to 4% in FY26, concentrated in the first half of the year, could pressure margins - this affects the consumer discretionary and commercial property cost dynamics.
  • Execution risk around the accelerated site roll-out target of roughly 75 new openings over three years - real estate availability and opening execution could influence capital deployment and operational performance.
  • A portion of the estate is workforce-dependent (13 gyms); excluding these improves reported return on invested capital, indicating potential operational sensitivity at labour-reliant sites.

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