Texas Capital has begun formal coverage of Strategy Inc, assigning a Buy rating and establishing a $200 price target. The firm points to Strategy’s position as a prominent digital asset treasury manager and growing institutional acceptance of bitcoin as central to its investment thesis.
Analysts at Texas Capital emphasize that Strategy’s equity remains closely linked to bitcoin price movements, and they view the company's approach of expanding bitcoin per share as a potential long-term driver of shareholder value. The brokerage frames its outlook around a set of specific assumptions and metrics that underlie the $200 target.
"Due to a favorable regulatory shift with the Trump administration and the broadening of financial market and corporate adoption, we believe Bitcoin has become a more established asset than many investors appreciate," Texas Capital says.
In its financial modeling, Texas Capital assumes bitcoin will appreciate at roughly 10% annually. The research note also models $17 billion in capital issuance in 2026 and applies a 1.19x multiple to net asset value. Using those inputs, the firm derives its $200 target price for Strategy Inc, which it estimates implies about 42% upside from current levels.
On the balance-sheet side, the brokerage describes Strategy’s financial position as relatively conservative. It notes debt constitutes roughly 14% of capital and that the company holds about $2.25 billion in cash reserves. Texas Capital calculates that this cash buffer provides roughly two years of coverage for interest and dividend obligations, a factor it views as protective during periods of market volatility.
The note also highlights industry structure as a potential benefit for larger firms like Strategy. Texas Capital cites a fragmented landscape of more than 30 listed digital asset treasury companies and suggests that a downturn in crypto markets could spur consolidation toward larger, more liquid platforms. Separately, the firm reports that the company’s digital credit instruments carry an average yield of about 11.5%.
Policy developments are another element the brokerage lists in support of its view. Texas Capital points to recent and proposed U.S. measures aimed at clarifying rules for crypto markets and expanding institutional access as positive for the asset class and for firms positioned to service institutional demand.
The research note does not ignore risks. Texas Capital cautions that Strategy relies on external funding in part because bitcoin itself generates no yield, and it flags technological threats to crypto security as a potential vulnerability. Nonetheless, the brokerage argues that Strategy’s liquidity, access to capital markets and scale help mitigate those risks.
On an operational level, Strategy reported a wider fourth-quarter loss in its most recent results. For the three months ended December 31, the company logged a loss of $12.4 billion, or $42.93 per share, compared with a loss of $670.8 million, or $3.03 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company held 713,502 bitcoins as of February 1 at a total cost of $54.26 billion, which equates to $76,052 per bitcoin.
Texas Capital’s initiation of coverage presents a bullish framework anchored to specific market and company metrics: assumed bitcoin appreciation of about 10% per year, modeled capital issuance in 2026 of $17 billion, a 1.19x NAV multiple and the balance-sheet and yield characteristics the brokerage cites as stabilizing factors. The firm acknowledges the funding and security risks inherent to an asset class that currently produces no intrinsic yield but contends Strategy’s size and liquidity position it to withstand periods of stress.