Stock Markets March 4, 2026

Telsey Advisory Group Lifts Ross Stores to Outperform After Robust Fiscal Q4 Results

Analyst cites a 'strong finish to FY25' and continued early-FY26 momentum as management raises buybacks and dividends

By Nina Shah ROST
Telsey Advisory Group Lifts Ross Stores to Outperform After Robust Fiscal Q4 Results
ROST

Telsey Advisory Group upgraded Ross Stores to Outperform following a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter and an upbeat early FY26 outlook. The retailer beat EPS and sales estimates, posted margin expansion, and signaled continued momentum into the new fiscal year while committing to store growth and increased shareholder returns.

Key Points

  • Ross beat Q4 EPS and revenue estimates: EPS $2.00 vs. consensus $1.90; Q4 sales rose 12.2% to $6.64 billion; comps up 9%. - Affects retail and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Margins expanded: gross margin 27.2% and operating margin 12.3%, both above guidance and consensus - relevant to profitability metrics across retail peers.
  • Management guided stronger early-FY26 sales and comps and announced higher shareholder returns including a $2.55 billion repurchase program - impacts equity markets and investor returns in the retail sector.

Telsey Advisory Group upgraded Ross Stores to an Outperform rating after analyst Dana Telsey described the company's year-end results as a "strong finish to FY25." The firm pointed to accelerating momentum that it says has carried into early FY26.

In the fourth quarter, Ross reported earnings per share of $2.00, topping the consensus estimate of $1.90. Telsey attributed the upside to sales growth and gross margin leverage.

Revenue for the quarter climbed 12.2 percent to $6.64 billion, a result that exceeded both company guidance and market expectations. Comparable sales rose 9 percent, a rate that Telsey noted was more than double the high end of prior guidance.

Telsey highlighted that the strength was broad-based, observing robust performance across departments and geographies. The analyst credited improved assortments and a better in-store experience for supporting the top-line gains.

Gross margin expanded to 27.2 percent, a level Telsey described as well above consensus, while operating margin reached 12.3 percent, outpacing both internal guidance and external forecasts.

For FY26, Telsey presented a constructive outlook. The firm expects total sales to increase in the range of 5 percent to 7 percent, with comparable sales growth projected at 3 percent to 4 percent. Management has signaled that the momentum observed late in FY25 has persisted into the new fiscal year.

Reflecting that ongoing strength, Ross guided first-quarter sales growth of 10 percent to 12 percent and comparable sales growth of 7 percent to 8 percent, figures Telsey characterized as well ahead of prior forecasts.

The firm also noted that Ross plans to increase investments in store growth while aiming to preserve a healthy margin profile and a well-controlled cost structure. Alongside those plans, Ross has raised shareholder returns by increasing its dividend and authorizing a new $2.55 billion share repurchase program.

In response to the stronger results and outlook, Telsey Advisory Group raised its price target on Ross Stores to $240 from $220.


Context and implications

The upgrade to Outperform and the higher price target reflect Telseys assessment that recent operational improvements and margin gains provide a stronger platform for growth and shareholder distributions early in FY26. The firm's projections for sales and comparable-store growth, together with elevated guidance for the first quarter, underscore management's confidence in demand and execution.

Investors will be watching whether Ross can sustain assortment and in-store improvements while executing on planned store investment and maintaining its cost controls.

Risks

  • FY26 guidance and first-quarter projections are forecasts that depend on continued momentum; actual results could differ if sales trends weaken - impacts retail revenue expectations.
  • Planned increases in store investments require execution while preserving margins and cost discipline; failure to maintain a healthy margin profile could pressure profitability - impacts operating performance in retail.
  • Raised shareholder return initiatives increase capital deployment expectations; future cash allocation depends on sustaining cash flow and margin performance - affects investor returns and capital management.

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