Rivian Automotive shares rose roughly 5% in early trading Tuesday following an upgrade from TD Cowen that moved the stock from a hold to a buy rating and established a new price target of $20. The stock had closed Monday at $15.87.
The upgrade reflects updated forecasts generated after analyst Itay Michaeli performed a detailed demand analysis for the company’s R2 model. Michaeli said he raised the price target after narrowing his estimate of Rivian’s 2027 EBITDA loss and applying a higher terminal multiple - 17x compared with 14.5x previously.
Central to TD Cowen’s reassessment is the firm’s newly introduced R2 model projection, which estimates full-scale U.S. demand in a 212,000 to 335,000-unit range. Michaeli said that range supports an outcome for 2027 that would be above consensus.
TD Cowen’s demand projections for the R2 imply upside relative to current 2027 consensus figures, and the firm described the risk/reward as favorable as Rivian approaches the R2 launch. That outlook factors in a stock that has been trading roughly 20% lower year-to-date.
In broader commentary, Michaeli observed that U.S. electric vehicle sentiment may be nearing a trough, with the next leg of demand growth potentially emerging in 2027-28. He noted that several conditions could bring that next phase about within the next 18 months, citing next-generation EV introductions and the arrival of personal autonomous vehicles as relevant catalysts.
TD Cowen’s research note also reiterated a buy rating on Tesla.
Context and implications
The upgrade and accompanying modelling changes underline how analyst revisions to medium-term profitability assumptions and terminal valuation multiples can shift investor perception, especially for growth-stage automakers targeting mainstream volumes with new models like the R2.
What remains constrained by the current analysis
The report’s conclusions are contingent on the specific demand ranges and financial estimates that TD Cowen published; those assumptions drive the tighter 2027 EBITDA loss view and the application of the higher terminal multiple.