TD Cowen has moved Novo Nordisk to a Hold rating, arguing that the drugmaker confronts "enormous challenges" ahead of semaglutide's loss of exclusivity. Analyst Michael Nedelcovych said the company deserves credit for developing the obesity market but expressed doubt that the current pipeline can fully compensate when semaglutide faces generic competition.
The downgrade follows what TD Cowen describes as a string of setbacks across key development programs. According to the bank, CagriSema trials have "failed or underwhelmed," and prescriptions for Ozempic have been lagging. Insights gathered at TD Cowen's recent Health Care Conference added further reasons for the firm to be cautious about the company's near-term outlook.
TD Cowen highlighted the commercial promise of the Wegovy Pill launch, noting that it "continues to impress," but emphasized persistent uncertainties. The bank raised its sales forecast for the Wegovy Pill to DKK 20 billion in 2026 and DKK 55 billion by 2030, yet cautioned that those gains may be overshadowed by semaglutide's eventual expiration of exclusivity in major markets, expected in 2031-32.
"Success of Wegovy Pill simply creates a larger hole to be filled," the firm wrote, warning that semaglutide's LOE will present a material challenge. TD Cowen characterized Novo Nordisk's broader pipeline as "relatively strong but no longer sufficient" to provide clear visibility beyond semaglutide's dominance.
As a result of these concerns, TD Cowen reduced its price target on the company's stock, setting it at $42, and said it is "moving to the sidelines pending greater clarity on the long-term trajectory." The bank's view rests on a combination of clinical program disappointments, mixed commercial signals and uncertainty about the competitive landscape for oral GLP-1 therapies, including pressure from rivals such as Lilly's orforglipron.
The firm's analysis underscores that while a new oral obesity therapy can expand the market, it may not be enough to offset the revenue gap that could open when semaglutide faces generic competition. TD Cowen's repositioning reflects a call for more definitive evidence that Novo Nordisk's pipeline and commercial execution will deliver sustainable growth beyond the semaglutide era.
Context limitations: This report reflects TD Cowen's assessment as presented; it does not add other data points or outside analysis beyond the statements and figures cited by the firm.