UBS Switzerland AG’s Chief Investment Office expects Swiss corporate profits to keep expanding despite persistent external headwinds, according to the bank’s latest assessment. The investment team pointed to continuing positive earnings growth for Swiss equities even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and US trade policies complicate corporate planning and growth outlooks.
In an environment characterized by near-zero interest rates, UBS says Swiss stocks currently provide a sustainable dividend yield of a little more than 3%, a level the bank considers attractive for investors seeking income and relative capital stability. Given that backdrop, the bank recommends investors give priority to quality names and companies that lead on profitability metrics, while also considering selected mid-cap and cyclical equities.
UBS identified the US-Iran conflict as a primary driver of market uncertainty at present. The firm noted that questions around energy prices, consumer confidence and broader global economic prospects are weighing on equity market sentiment. Its base-case view is that the confrontation will end within weeks, but it cautioned that a prolonged period of elevated tensions would pose a larger drag on economic and financial conditions.
Concurrently, UBS highlighted a notable acceleration in the rollout of artificial intelligence tools across industries this year. The investment bank observed that AI applications are reaching an expanding set of sectors, prompting investors to reallocate capital - exiting names perceived as vulnerable to AI disruption and moving into companies seen as either indifferent to the technology or positioned to benefit from it.
While UBS acknowledges AI will materially alter parts of the economy over coming years, the bank emphasized that the precise outcomes remain unclear. It warned that many market moves into presumed AI beneficiaries and out of potentially disadvantaged stocks have been too broad, and urged a more measured approach. On a tactical level, UBS recommends trimming exposure to pharmaceutical equities that have recently acted as safe havens in the AI debate, and instead selectively purchasing oversold companies within sectors impacted by the narrative.
For investors seeking structural growth themes within the Swiss market, UBS points to the longevity sector. Companies evolving their products and services to meet the needs and preferences of older consumers are seen as having favorable business prospects over time. In addition, industrial firms operating in energy and resources are benefiting from transformative developments tied to digitalization and the energy transition, according to the bank.
UBS also provided a range of scenario targets for the SMI index. Its central scenario sets a December 2026 target of 14,000, with the index at 12,901 on Wednesday. In an upside permutation the bank’s target rises to 15,000, while its downside case projects a fall to 10,500.
The investment house reiterated that its preferred theme remains attractively valued yield stocks that also display dividend growth. UBS noted a long-running pattern of steady dividend increases across the Swiss market: total SMI dividends have generally risen every year since 2009 with the sole exception of 2021, when they declined by 5%. From 2022 through 2025, dividends recovered at annual rates in the 4% to 8% range.
Currency movements are another factor UBS is monitoring. The bank characterizes currency effects as modestly negative in 2024 and significantly negative in 2025. It expects currency impacts to be markedly negative in the first quarter of 2026 before moderating substantially thereafter.
Investment approach suggested by UBS
- Emphasize high-quality, profitability-leading firms and dividend growers.
- Consider selective mid-cap and cyclical exposures where valuation and fundamentals support upside.
- Apply tactical reductions to pharmaceutical weighting and selectively buy oversold names in sectors affected by broad AI-driven flows.
The bank’s guidance reflects a blend of income-oriented and selective growth positioning, with sensitivity to ongoing geopolitical developments, trade-policy impacts, AI-driven market rotation and near-term currency headwinds.