Swiss Re's in-house research institute said on Wednesday that it expects global insurance total premium growth to moderate in 2026, citing economic disruption tied to the most recent Middle East conflict as a key factor. The institute projected real global premium growth of 1.3% for 2026, a decline from 3.9% in 2025.
The report links the conflict to broader effects on economic activity and inflation, and it frames the event as part of a larger pattern of rising geopolitical risk. Jerome Haegeli, Swiss Re's group chief economist, emphasized that the current crisis should not be seen as isolated. In the report he said:
"The latest Middle East conflict is not a one-off shock but another sign that geopolitical risk has become a structural feature of the global economy with four supply shocks in six years."
The research institute also highlighted inflationary trends and their consequences for insurance segments. It said global inflation is expected to average 4% this year, and that the resulting higher interest rate environment should continue to support life insurance. On this point, the institute projects that life insurance premiums will expand by 2.3% in real terms in 2026, a pace described as above the long-term trend.
Details and context
- Projected global total premium growth in real terms: 1.3% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025.
- Projected global inflation for the year: 4% on average, according to the institute.
- Projected real growth for life insurance premiums in 2026: 2.3%, noted as above the long-term trend.
Implications
The institute's outlook signals weaker overall momentum for the insurance industry in 2026 amid a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and inflationary forces. Within the sector, life insurance is singled out as relatively more resilient due to the benefits of a higher interest rate environment, while the broader market faces headwinds from disrupted economic activity and a shift toward a more fragmented global economy.
Concluding note
Swiss Re's projections underline the influence of geopolitical developments on insurance market dynamics and suggest a divergence between life insurance performance and total premium growth in the coming year, while explicitly tying these trends to inflation and structural geopolitical risks.