Sterling Infrastructure (NASDAQ:STRL) shares declined 1.6% following the publication of a short report from Snow Cap Research, which characterized the company as "a poster child for the AI bubble in public markets."
In its analysis, Snow Cap Research disputed Sterling’s portrayal as a data center infrastructure provider. The firm said Sterling’s exposure to data center work is "exaggerated" and that purported backlog growth lacks corroboration from the company’s subsidiary contract win data.
Snow Cap further alleged that Sterling’s reported margins "appear grossly inflated through abnormal accounting revisions," suggesting the company’s profitability metrics may not reflect underlying operational performance.
The research note reframes Sterling not as a specialized data center builder but as "a collection of regional contractors that specialize in site preparation and excavation services." According to Snow Cap, Sterling rebranded one of its segments as "E-Infrastructure" in 2022 and began presenting itself to investors as a direct beneficiary of the AI buildout.
Snow Cap pointed to Sterling’s share-price trajectory since that rebranding, noting the stock has climbed nearly twenty-fold and has even outpaced some well-known AI beneficiaries. Despite that market performance, the research firm described the investment narrative as "a mirage," based on its review of subsidiary contract information and the projects underlying Sterling’s reported pipeline.
On valuation risk, Snow Cap Research estimates a 60-80% downside for Sterling’s stock from current levels, an assessment that underlies its decision to initiate the short position.
Context and takeaways
- Sterling’s share price fell modestly - 1.6% - after Snow Cap Research disclosed a new short position and issued critical findings.
- Key allegations include exaggerated claims about data center exposure, backlog growth not supported by contract-level data, and inflated margins tied to accounting revisions.
- Snow Cap views Sterling primarily as a group of regional site-preparation and excavation contractors that rebranded part of the business in 2022 as "E-Infrastructure," and then leaned into an AI-related growth story.
What Snow Cap predicts
The research firm projects a potential 60-80% decline in Sterling’s stock from current prices, based on its analysis and the conclusion that the company’s AI-related narrative does not match the underlying contract activity.
Market implications
- The claims affect investor perceptions in equities linked to data-center infrastructure and companies positioning themselves as AI beneficiaries.
- Construction and site-preparation contractors that seek to rebrand around AI-related work may face increased scrutiny of contract-level evidence and accounting practices.
- Short-sellers and activist researchers remain a factor in how niche infrastructure stories are priced in public markets.