S&P Global Ratings has revised the outlook on Nomura Holdings Inc. and its main subsidiaries to positive from stable, while leaving the current credit ratings unchanged.
The firm retained Nomura Holdings' issuer credit ratings at 'BBB+/A-2' for long- and short-term obligations, and upheld 'A-/A-2' ratings on core group units, including Nomura Securities Co. Ltd.
S&P pointed to Nomura's ongoing efforts to build a more durable business foundation, noting that recurring revenue streams from the wealth management division and growth in assets under management within investment management have strengthened the group's earnings profile. According to the rating agency, revenue sources deemed stable now cover roughly 30% of the operating expenses across all segments, and the wealth management business accounts for approximately 40% of income before taxes for the group.
These shifts, S&P said, should help the group better absorb periods of market stress by stabilising earnings that historically were more exposed to market swings.
The agency also cited an improving domestic backdrop in Japan as a supportive factor. That environment includes government measures to encourage household securities investment, a moderately higher interest-rate setting, and robust corporate activity such as mergers and acquisitions.
On the strategic front, Nomura expanded its stable revenue base overseas in 2025 by acquiring U.S. and European public asset management businesses from Macquarie Group Ltd. The group has been reorienting capital allocation away from the wholesale business toward investment management and banking, while introducing a wider range of products in its wholesale operations to reduce earnings volatility.
Regarding capital, S&P expects Nomura's risk-adjusted capital ratio to remain in the 8%-9% range over the next one to two years. The ratio declined to 9.6% at the end of March 2025, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, a move the agency attributes to tighter regulatory requirements. Separately, the group's consolidated Tier 1 ratio fell to a preliminary 15.0% at the end of December 2025.
S&P reiterated that Nomura's significant systemic role within Japan's financial system continues to underpin its credit profile, with the prospect of extraordinary government support incorporated into the ratings assessment.
The rating agency said it could consider an upgrade if Nomura continues to strengthen its stable earnings base while preserving adequate capital metrics. Conversely, the outlook could be returned to stable if the group's operating performance showed large swings, capital ratios deteriorated markedly, or if funding resilience weakened under adverse market conditions.