S&P Global Ratings has raised its credit rating on Eldorado Gold Corp. to BB- from B+ and assigned a positive outlook, citing a step-up in cash generation and an improved leverage trajectory tied to higher gold prices and forward movement on key development projects.
The ratings agency reported that Eldorado produced more than $1 billion of S&P-adjusted EBITDA in 2025, a significant increase from just over $700 million in 2024. That jump in earnings came as the average gold price reached roughly $3,444 per ounce in 2025, a rise of about 44% compared with the prior year.
On a balance-sheet basis, Eldorado's 2025 gross leverage was around 1.3 times, and the company held approximately $870 million in cash as of Dec. 31, 2025. Those figures were presented despite continued capital deployment on the Skouries copper-gold development in Greece.
Skouries was roughly 90% complete at year-end 2025, with an estimated $250 million of remaining capital expenditure under a revised total project cost of $1.3 billion. According to S&P, production at Skouries is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2026 and to ramp to commercial production in late 2026. When operating at steady state, S&P anticipates the project will average about 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper per year over an initial mine life of approximately 20 years.
Alongside progress in Greece, Eldorado entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Foran in an almost all-stock transaction valued at about C$3.8 billion. The acquisition adds the near-complete McIlvenna Bay underground development in Saskatchewan to Eldorado's portfolio. McIlvenna Bay was reported as 85% complete as of Dec. 31, 2025. The site is expected to produce annual averages of about 41 million pounds of copper, 20,000 ounces of gold, 444,000 ounces of silver and 54 million pounds of zinc over an estimated 18-year reserve life.
The Foran transaction remains subject to shareholder approvals, regulatory clearances and customary closing conditions, with the deal expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 if those conditions are satisfied.
S&P projects that Eldorado's annual gold-equivalent production will rise by more than 80% to about 900,000 ounces by the end of 2027, compared with reported 2025 production of 488,000 ounces. The ratings firm also expects the combined company's adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to be well below 1.0 times in 2027.
On a cash-flow basis, S&P forecasts roughly $2 billion of free operating cash flow in 2027-2028 for the combined entity, on the assumption that Skouries reaches steady state operations by mid-2027. Those projections underpin the upgrade and the positive outlook assigned to Eldorado.
Context and next steps
The upgrade reflects a combination of stronger commodity pricing in 2025, completion momentum at major projects and a near-term acquisition that materially increases future production potential. Market participants will be watching the closing of the Foran transaction and the operational ramp at Skouries to assess whether S&P's forecasts for production, leverage and free cash flow are met.