S&P Global Ratings has raised the long-term issuer credit rating for NVIDIA Corporation to AA from AA-, attributing the move to intense market demand for artificial intelligence systems and the firm's strengthening position across the data center value chain.
The upgrade rests on S&P Global's view of NVIDIA's durable competitive advantages and the company's capacity to translate platform leadership into substantial cash generation inside a rapidly growing data center ecosystem.
According to the ratings agency, NVIDIA's revenue is expected to accelerate sharply, rising 82% in fiscal 2027 to $394 billion and then climbing a further 38% to $544 billion in fiscal 2028. Those forecasts are tied to NVIDIA's migration to the Blackwell GPU family and a clear product road map that includes the next-generation Rubin architecture.
S&P Global highlights NVIDIA's platform-oriented strategy as a key driver of its pricing power and competitive moat versus rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc. The firm projects rising operating margins and low capital intensity will combine to produce significant free operating cash flow - $196 billion in fiscal 2027 and $276 billion in fiscal 2028 under the agency's base case.
That projected cash abundance has already supported an expanded program of shareholder returns, including a boosted $80 billion share repurchase authorization and a larger dividend. At the same time, NVIDIA has moved to secure advanced foundry capacity by making substantial prepayments to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. for leading-edge production slots.
Balance-sheet and supply-chain considerations
S&P Global's assessment credits NVIDIA's liquidity profile and cash-generation outlook for underpinning the upgrade, while also drawing attention to concentrations that could pose material risks. The agency specifically called out NVIDIA's geographic and supplier concentration with TSMC in Taiwan as a notable vulnerability.
Additionally, S&P Global flagged broader risks to the AI infrastructure rollout that could weigh on the outlook, such as the potential for tightened capital markets and constraints on power supply for data centers.
The ratings agency assigned a stable outlook, signaling expectations that NVIDIA will retain market leadership and continue to strengthen an already robust balance sheet. S&P Global noted that further upward rating movement would depend on a meaningful reduction in manufacturing outsourcing concentration combined with persistently net cash positions.
Implications for markets and operations
- Analysts see the upgrade as recognition of NVIDIA's ability to convert platform demand into cash that funds buybacks and dividends while securing manufacturing capacity.
- Supply-chain actions, including large prepayments to foundries, underscore management's focus on ensuring availability of leading-edge production amid intense demand.
- The rating change draws attention to capital-market and infrastructure dependencies that may affect the pace of AI infrastructure deployment.