S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Vertiv Group Corp. to investment grade, moving the company from 'BB+' to 'BBB-'. The agency based the action on Vertiv's strong EBITDA growth, improved margins and consistently low adjusted leverage.
S&P highlighted that Vertiv has been able to sustain S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA margins in the low to mid-20% range while keeping adjusted leverage at about 2x or lower. The rating has a stable outlook, reflecting S&P's expectation that Vertiv will preserve solid credit metrics over the next two years.
Revenue growth expectations are robust. S&P projects that Vertiv will increase revenue by the high-20% range through 2026, a trajectory the agency attributes to secular demand from artificial intelligence and cloud computing that is driving substantial investment in data center construction. Supporting those projections is a near-term backlog of almost $15 billion, which S&P notes has increased 109% year over year, and trailing-12-month organic orders that exceed $17 billion, up about 81% as of December 31, 2025.
On profitability, S&P anticipates Vertiv's adjusted EBITDA margin will improve to approximately 23% in 2026, a rise of about 60 basis points from current levels. The agency expects this margin expansion despite higher tariff-related costs and elevated growth investments in 2025. S&P attributes the anticipated improvement to operating leverage from greater volumes, price increases and productivity gains.
Cash flow expectations remain strong even as S&P models a decline from 2025. The agency forecasts free operating cash flow of about $1.6 billion in 2026, down from roughly $1.9 billion in 2025. According to S&P, Vertiv is expected to deploy that cash flow to fund growth opportunities and provide shareholder rewards while keeping leverage at or below its stated net leverage target.
Despite the upgrade and favorable projections, S&P cautioned that Vertiv faces vulnerability to swings in EBITDA and cash flow because of its concentrated revenue exposure to the data center end market, which accounts for about 80% of total revenue. That concentration leaves the company's results more sensitive to changes in demand from large data center customers.
S&P also provided industry context for demand expectations, estimating that the top five U.S. hyperscalers - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle - will spend about $600 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, an increase of roughly 38% from approximately $437 billion in 2025. That anticipated uplift in hyperscaler capex is cited as a key driver of the demand supporting Vertiv's upgrade.
Implications
The upgrade to 'BBB-' reflects S&P's view that Vertiv's earnings power and balance sheet profile have strengthened materially amid a near-term surge in data center demand. At the same time, the firm's heavy reliance on the data center sector means that its cash flow and EBITDA remain exposed to end-market swings.