SoftBank Group is widely anticipated to record a meaningful profit tied to its investment in OpenAI when it releases quarterly results on Thursday, yet investor attention is increasingly fixed on the mechanics of financing the company's expanding artificial intelligence commitments.
The expected book gain stems from a tranche of OpenAI investment completed in December. BTIG analyst Jesse Sobelson estimates that SoftBank should recognise an investment gain of $4.45 billion from the $22.5 billion segment of that deal. At the same time, the broader market debate has shifted from headline valuations toward the sustainability of funding for OpenAI, which has struck a series of multi-billion-dollar agreements while continuing to post operating losses.
SoftBank originally invested more than $30 billion in OpenAI in 2025, lifting its ownership to roughly 11%. The Japanese investment group is reported to be in discussions to contribute up to an additional $30 billion in the latest funding round. That scale of exposure means analysts and investors increasingly view SoftBank as an indirect, publicly traded proxy for OpenAI, with attendant concentration risk and concerns about how future commitments could strain SoftBank's financial position.
"The reality for SoftBank shareholders at the moment is that their fortune is tied with OpenAI," said Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor and infrastructure research at Futurum Equities. "Even if they do another $50 billion round they are going to require more funding in the coming years. The likes of Amazon and Google are spending well in excess of $100 billion per year in capex," he said.
SoftBank's aggressive, high-conviction approach to unprofitable but high-potential companies mirrors the pattern associated with its founder and chief executive, who has favoured concentrated bets on firms not yet in the black. While recent funding rounds for OpenAI have brought successively higher valuations, those gains currently exist as unrealised, on-paper appreciation.
Analysts' estimates for SoftBank's quarterly net income vary widely. A survey conducted by LSEG of five analysts produced projections ranging from a net gain of 1.1 trillion yen to a loss of 480 billion yen for the period under review.
Financing and balance-sheet dynamics
How SoftBank plans to finance further investments in OpenAI will be a central question for the market. To support its AI commitments, the group has already monetised some of its most liquid holdings and increased borrowings. In the September quarter, SoftBank disclosed the sale of a $5.8 billion holding in Nvidia and the partial disposal of its T-Mobile stake, generating proceeds of $9.17 billion.
At the same time, the company has added debt, raising scrutiny of its leverage levels. Nomura senior credit strategist Shogo Tono estimated that the ratio of loans to the value of SoftBank's assets may have risen to 21.5% at the end of December from 16.5% three months earlier. Tono further noted that even if SoftBank were to value OpenAI at the $830 billion figure reportedly being targeted in the AI firm's latest fundraising effort, the leverage ratio would only decrease to about 19.2%.
Despite a long-term credit rating that is non-investment-grade according to S&P, SoftBank retains some financial flexibility. In November the company expanded the amount it can borrow against its stake in chip designer Arm Holdings; $11.5 billion of that facility remained undrawn at the end of December. In addition, SoftBank held cash and cash equivalents of 3.5 trillion yen at the end of September.
Observers expect further asset monetisation and additional debt issuance as potential avenues to fund continued participation in OpenAI rounds. The syndicated portion of last year's $40 billion investment was reportedly oversubscribed, and parties including Amazon and Nvidia are said to be in discussions to take part in the latest funding round.
Competition among AI players is intensifying, a trend that market participants say is narrowing the gap in growth outlooks and revenue projections between OpenAI and its rivals. "Just six months ago OpenAI was considered the dominant player, but now its growth outlook and revenue forecasts are on par with competitors," Futurum's Bulk said.
SoftBank's immediate earnings release is expected to reflect both the upside from its OpenAI holdings and the broader scrutiny of how it intends to maintain funding momentum for the AI firm. Investors and credit analysts will be watching indicators of leverage, the pace of further asset sales, and any concrete financing commitments tied to the next stages of OpenAI's capital raising.
(Currency reference: $1 = 155.5100 yen)