European travel to the United States, which fell markedly during 2025, displayed signs of stabilisation toward the end of the year, according to analysis in a Kepler Cheuvreux note. The brokers and analysts who prepared the report highlight several datapoints that together suggest the worst of the decline may now be behind the transatlantic market.
The Kepler report characterises international traffic to the U.S. as "one of the main pain points for long-haul carriers in 2025," attributing a substantial portion of the weakness to reduced demand from Europe. The note states that many European travellers were discouraged by the rhetoric and actions of President Donald Trump and subsequently directed their holiday spending elsewhere.
Official statistics from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office, cited in the note, show inbound passenger numbers falling across all major source regions beginning in February, with flows from Europe particularly affected during the peak summer holiday months. While IATA numbers for North America-based airlines implied only modest shifts in international traffic growth, Kepler analysts warned that U.S. carriers' exposure is heavily concentrated on bookings made in the U.S., which can conceal softening demand originating overseas.
Looking beneath regional aggregates, the note flags marked variation by country. Travellers from France and Germany recorded sharp year-on-year declines in travel to the U.S. at several points in 2025 - declines near 20% in some months are highlighted by Kepler. By contrast, travellers from Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom largely maintained or increased their travel to the U.S. relative to the prior year, with the report noting these cohorts "mostly seemed not to care too much about U.S. President Trump’s rhetoric."
Kepler identifies the third quarter of 2025 as the nadir for most European markets, followed by a rebound in the closing months of the year. The firm writes that the most recent quarterly statistics indicate traffic has "passed the trough and is already rebounding in Q4 2025," even though late-year developments such as the U.S. government shutdown and domestic disruptions to air travel in November created additional headwinds.
Early signals for 2026 were described as constructive. Booking records from travel technology company Amadeus showed that reservations made in December for travel to North America during the early June to mid-July 2026 window were up 15% year on year. Kepler notes this booking period overlaps with the FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico and that while direct historical comparators are not available, the observed pickup "do not feel like a disappointment" relative to expectations for a World Cup-related boost.
Search behaviour provided corroborating evidence. Google Trends data for principal European markets including Germany, France, Spain and the United Kingdom registered rising interest in flights to the U.S. in January, a pattern that broadly mirrors the improvement seen in the passenger counts for late 2025.
Taking these elements together, Kepler describes the combination of booking, search and official traffic data as "green shoots" for transatlantic travel. The brokerage stresses the limited visibility so far, but concludes the gathered evidence points to a recovery in European-origin passenger flows from the depressed levels experienced through 2025. That recovery would be materially positive for long-haul airlines in 2026 should the trend persist.
The report highlights specific corporate beneficiaries of such a rebound. EU-U.S. travel is identified as a significant profit pool for International Consolidated Airlines Group - British Airways' parent - and a recovery in flows is therefore presented as positive for the group. Deutsche Lufthansa, which the note says endured some of the most acute headwinds in 2025, is also identified as likely to gain if European-origin demand strengthens.
Analyst context
For transportation and logistics observers, the Kepler analysis underscores the importance of origin-market dynamics and the potential disconnect between U.S.-point-of-sale data and true foreign-origin demand. The trajectory of bookings and search interest into early 2026 will be important indicators to watch for confirmation that the rebound is sustained.