Stock Markets March 16, 2026

Shell Sees Global LNG Demand Rising Up to 85% by 2050

Company projects 422 Mtpa in 2025 climbing to 610-780 Mtpa by mid-century, warns of supply investment needs in coming decades

By Nina Shah SHEL
Shell Sees Global LNG Demand Rising Up to 85% by 2050
SHEL

Shell said Monday that liquefied natural gas demand worldwide is forecast to grow from 422 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2025 to a range between 610 Mtpa and 780 Mtpa by 2050. The company said this represents an increase of approximately 45% to 85% over the period, that Asia will drive most growth to 2040, and that additional supply investment in the 2030s and 2040s will be required even to meet the lower end of the 2050 range.

Key Points

  • Shell forecasts global LNG demand rising from 422 Mtpa in 2025 to 610-780 Mtpa by 2050 - an increase of about 45% to 85%.
  • Asia is expected to drive 70% of LNG demand growth to 2040, concentrating demand-side pressure in that region.
  • Shell says further supply investment during the 2030s and 2040s will be necessary even to meet the lower end of its 2050 demand estimate; the company states its plants and developments sit in the lower half of the industry cost curve.

Overview

Shell said Monday that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to rise from 422 million tonnes per annum in 2025 to between 610 million tonnes per annum and 780 million tonnes per annum by 2050. The company described that span as an increase of roughly 45% to 85% over the 25-year period.

Supply outlook and investment

According to Shell, meeting demand at the lower end of that 2050 forecast range will still require further investment in supply during the 2030s and 2040s. The company highlighted that its existing LNG plants together with new developments are positioned competitively - sitting in the bottom half of the industry's cost curve - but emphasized that additional capacity and investment will be needed across the coming decades to align supply with projected demand.

Regional drivers

Shell said that growth in LNG demand through to 2040 will be concentrated in Asia, which accounts for 70% of the projected increase to that year. The company presented Asia as the primary source of incremental demand through the 2040 horizon, underlining regional importance in the overall global demand picture.

Role of LNG in energy mix

The company said LNG currently makes up 14% of global natural gas supply - an amount equivalent to just over 3% of total primary energy supply. Shell expects LNG's share of primary energy to rise to over 4% by 2040 and to remain around that level in 2050.

Implications for markets

Shell's projections outline a materially larger LNG market by mid-century, with a substantial portion of near-term demand growth originating in Asia and with an identified need for further supply-side investment in the 2030s and 2040s to meet projected volumes.

Risks

  • Investment risk - Shell warns that additional supply investment will be required in the 2030s and 2040s to meet even the lower 2050 demand forecast, implying potential funding and execution challenges for developers and financiers.
  • Demand concentration risk - With 70% of growth to 2040 expected to come from Asia, regional shifts in energy policy or economic conditions could materially affect the projected demand trajectory.
  • Market share uncertainty - While Shell projects LNG's share of primary energy to rise to over 4% by 2040 and remain around that level in 2050, the future share is subject to the accuracy of the demand forecast and the ability to deliver competitive supply.

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