RBC Capital on Thursday flagged a mounting energy and transport disruption in the Middle East as attacks on critical regional infrastructure increase in frequency and scope. In a note to clients, the firm urged investors to avoid assuming a rapid de-escalation, warning that current conditions could sustain elevated disruption to exports and shipping.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research, described the situation as having entered "a potentially dangerous new chapter" after an Israeli strike on the South Pars Gas Field led to a sequence of Iranian retaliatory operations. According to the note, Iranian strikes have struck Qatar's Ras Laffan and have targeted Abu Dhabi's Habshan Gas Facility.
The note also cites threats issued against additional energy assets, including the UAE's Al Hasan Gas Field and Saudi Arabia's Jubail Petrochemical Complex and Samref Refinery. RBC Capital said the Strait of Hormuz is effectively under Iranian control and added that President Trump's options to contain the crisis "have been decidedly limited."
RBC Capital reported that while officials have attempted to calm markets by suggesting disruptions will be short-lived, "nothing points to a limited engagement at this juncture." The firm highlighted growing concern that the widening threat environment - which now includes risks to ports across the Red Sea - could require ground forces to secure the Strait of Hormuz if the situation continues to escalate.
On investor positioning, RBC Capital specifically cautioned against overreliance on the so-called TACO trade. The firm said "there may be too much emphasis on the 'TACO' trade, as Iran could continue attacks, even if President Trump seeks to call time." It noted that Iran would not need to sustain the current tempo of strikes to meaningfully disrupt exports and pointed to a "relatively deep bench" of IRGC officials capable of continuing operations.
The note frames the immediate risk as not strictly a short-term interruption but a period in which multiple facilities and maritime routes face ongoing threats. For market participants and supply chain stakeholders, RBC's assessment suggests heightened uncertainty for energy flows, port operations, and regional shipping lanes until a clear pathway to de-escalation emerges.