Overview
RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage of Allianz SE (ETR: ALVG) with a "sector perform" recommendation and assigned a price objective of €405. That level reflects approximately 10% upside from the company's €367.10 closing price on Feb. 12 and incorporates a 4.7% dividend yield, producing a combined expected return of roughly 15%.
Valuation and the analyst view
Ben Cohen of RBC describes Allianz as "appropriately valued" at current market multiples. The group trades at about 11.8x forward earnings, which Cohen notes is roughly a 5% premium to a composite of peers. He argues that this premium is justified by Allianz's historical track record but leaves little room for further multiple expansion.
"We consider the stock a suitable core holding, but remain on the sidelines for now," Cohen wrote, adding that the next material positive catalyst is likely to be the company's Capital Markets Day in the second half of 2027.
From acceleration to maximization
RBC frames Allianz's recent trajectory as a move from rapid acceleration to a phase of maximization. Between 2022 and 2024 three structural forces supported a re-rating from about 10x to roughly 12x earnings: rising bond yields, strong pricing in property and casualty (P&C), and gains in capital efficiency. According to RBC, those tailwinds are now moderating.
Specifically, bond yields have stabilized and P&C pricing is easing in several areas including the U.K., German motor, and large commercial lines. Competition has also intensified in life insurance and asset management, pressuring some of the company's higher-margin businesses.
In U.S. fixed-index annuities, RBC notes Allianz has ceded the top market position to Athene, the unit owned by Apollo, while Global Atlantic, owned by KKR, has also taken market share.
Historical growth and near-term forecasts
RBC estimates that Allianz achieved a 17% compound annual growth rate in EPS between 2022 and 2024, more than double the 9% consensus growth rate that is being guided through 2027. Looking ahead, Cohen projects core diluted EPS of €28.93 in 2025, €31.01 in 2026 and €32.59 in 2027.
Underpinning those EPS figures, RBC models adjusted operating profit of €17.3 billion in 2025, rising to €18.3 billion in 2026 and €18.9 billion in 2027.
For full-year 2025 results due on Feb. 26, RBC's operating profit estimate is €17.3 billion versus Visible Alpha consensus of €17.4 billion. For 2026 RBC forecasts €18.3 billion compared with consensus of €18.1 billion, and both sets of estimates sit above Allianz's stated baseline target of €18.25 billion.
Cohen warns that expecting 9% operating profit growth in 2026 - which would translate to roughly 11% EPS growth - may be a challenging and optimistic premise for sustained future expansion.
Sum-of-the-parts valuation
RBC's sum-of-the-parts approach places value at the business-line level and arrives at the €405 target. The breakdown assigns P&C a value of €224 per share based on 12.6x 2027 earnings, Life & Health €126 at 11.2x, and Asset Management €98 at 13.5x. Key modeling assumptions include a risk-free rate of 2.9%, an equity risk premium of 5%, and a weighted-average cost of capital of 7.9%.
Capital generation, solvency and payouts
RBC expects Allianz's solvency ratio to increase from 209% in 2024 to 221% by 2027. Management actions are projected to contribute 2-3 percentage points toward the firm's targeted annual capital generation of 24-25 points.
The company is targeting a total payout ratio of more than 75%, which includes about €2.2 billion a year in share buybacks through 2027. Dividend estimates in RBC's model rise to €17.40 per share in 2025 and to €18.75 per share in 2026.
Technology, distribution and competitive dynamics
Cohen highlights artificial intelligence as a dual-force for Allianz. On one hand AI presents the potential for meaningful cost savings in claims handling and customer acquisition. On the other hand it could disrupt traditional agent and bancassurance distribution channels, representing a risk to established sales models.
Investment takeaway and catalyst timetable
RBC's initiation positions Allianz as a stable, core holding whose valuation reflects much of the company's near-term progress. With modest upside to the €405 target and limited near-term multiple expansion expected, the brokerage remains cautious until a clearer set of positive catalysts - notably the H2 2027 Capital Markets Day - arrives.
Modeling and supplementary tool mention
ProPicks AI, mentioned in the original reporting, evaluates stocks including ALVG using more than 100 financial metrics and monthly review cycles. The tool states it applies AI to surface risk-reward opportunities and cites past notable winners such as Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). The service presents itself as unbiased and focused on fundamentals, momentum and valuation.