Stock Markets February 20, 2026

Raymond James Says JFrog Sell-Off Overstates Threat from Anthropic’s New Security Tool

Analysts keep an Outperform rating as they argue the market is extrapolating beyond current AI capabilities and JFrog’s contracted security momentum provides a floor

By Caleb Monroe FROG
Raymond James Says JFrog Sell-Off Overstates Threat from Anthropic’s New Security Tool
FROG

JFrog shares dropped more than 20% after Anthropic unveiled Claude Code Security, prompting investor concern that AI-native tools could erode demand for package-level controls. Raymond James kept an Outperform rating, arguing the sell-off exaggerates the near-term risk. The firm points to JFrog’s artifact-layer control point, contracted security revenue visibility and core platform demand as reasons the company’s strategic position remains intact.

Key Points

  • Anthropic’s Claude Code Security announcement led to a >20% drop in JFrog shares amid concerns about AI-native disruption to traditional security models.
  • Raymond James kept an Outperform rating, arguing JFrog’s artifact- and package-layer control point and contracted security momentum provide a floor for growth.
  • Security represented 16% of Remaining Performance Obligations at the end of FY25, and analysts estimate this underpins a 50% year-over-year Security ARR growth floor for the current year.

Shares of JFrog Ltd. (NASDAQ: FROG) plunged by more than 20% on Friday after Anthropic announced Claude Code Security, an AI-driven tool focused on reasoning-based analysis at the source-code level. The announcement raised investor worries that AI-native code analysis could reduce the need for downstream package- and artifact-level controls.

Despite the sharp pullback, Raymond James retained an Outperform rating on JFrog stock, arguing the market reaction overstates the immediate threat to JFrog’s business. The analysts contend that while Claude Code Security highlights a new category of AI-native tooling, it does not directly negate the governance and enforcement role JFrog occupies at the artifact and package layer of the software stack.


The near-term concerns driving the sell-off

Investors cited several potential impacts from Anthropic’s announcement that could weigh on JFrog’s momentum:

  • Reduced need for "Curation" - If AI can detect vulnerabilities during coding, enterprises may perceive less demand for downstream package-level controls such as JFrog Curation.
  • Perception of "Good Enough" security - Organizations might regard AI-native tools as sufficient first-line defense and slow adoption of JFrog’s incremental security modules.
  • Platform creep - While Claude Code Security is currently concentrated on code review, there is concern that Anthropic could extend its reach into artifact scanning, which would more directly overlap JFrog’s core offerings.

Why Raymond James sees a floor under JFrog

Raymond James argues that market participants are extrapolating Claude’s present capabilities into a broader threat that is not yet realized. The firm emphasizes several points in support of a more constructive view:

  • Different control point - JFrog operates at the artifact and package layer, where enterprises require policy enforcement and governance distinct from source-code review.
  • Visibility into growth - Security composed 16% of Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) at the end of FY25. Analysts interpret this contracted security momentum as supporting a floor of 50% year-over-year Security ARR growth for the current year.
  • Core platform resilience - JFrog’s value extends beyond security, into binary lifecycle management and distribution. Raymond James does not see the Claude announcement impacting demand for those core platform capabilities.

Valuation and outlook

JFrog is assigned an Enterprise Value of $4.4 billion. For the full year 2026, analysts project Non-GAAP EPS of $0.90 on $626 million in revenue. Raymond James frames the recent share decline as a potential buying opportunity for growth-oriented investors, given the visibility in contracted security momentum and the firm’s view that the pullback represents a short-term risk rather than a strategic impairment.


Bottom line

The Anthropic announcement triggered a steep, immediate market reaction, but Raymond James maintains that JFrog’s positioning at the artifact layer, its contracted security revenue, and its broader platform utility reduce the likelihood that the Claude unveiling materially damages JFrog’s near-term trajectory.

Risks

  • If enterprises begin to treat AI-native code analysis as sufficient first-line coverage, adoption of JFrog’s incremental security modules could slow - impacting the software security sector and vendors focused on artifact-level controls.
  • There is uncertainty that Anthropic or similar providers could expand from source-code review into artifact scanning, which would increase competitive pressure on companies offering package-level security and binary management.
  • Market sentiment may continue to be volatile in response to AI security announcements, creating short-term valuation risk for stocks in the enterprise security and software distribution sectors.

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