Natural gas futures climbed on Thursday after reports indicated that attacks originating from Iran had inflicted damage on important Qatari energy installations, a development that market participants said could take material liquefied natural gas capacity offline.
By 11:08 a.m. EDT, Henry Hub futures were trading roughly 5% higher, at $3.21 per million British thermal units. Traders moved quickly after reports said two of QatarEnergys 14 LNG trains and one of its two gas-to-liquids facilities sustained damage. Raymond James estimated the impact as the effective removal of 17% of Qatars LNG capacity for up to five years.
U.S. supply picture
The price uptick coincided with the Energy Information Administrations weekly storage report for the week ended March 13, which showed a build of 35 billion cubic feet. That injection was the first of the year and was 4 Bcf larger than the market consensus of 31 Bcf.
Working gas in storage now stands at 1.883 trillion cubic feet, leaving inventories 47 Bcf above the five-year average and 177 Bcf higher than the same week a year ago. The South Central region accounted for the majority of this weeks build with an inflow of 26 Bcf.
Market context and immediate effect
The reported damage to Qatari facilities and the Raymond James capacity estimate appear to have been the primary drivers of the near-term price reaction in Henry Hub futures. At the same time, the EIAs storage data underlines that U.S. inventories remain in surplus versus normal levels despite the weekly injection being the first of the calendar year.
Outlook considerations
Both the disruption to LNG export capacity abroad and the domestic storage surplus are factors market participants will weigh when assessing price trajectories and supply balances going forward. The reported outage duration - up to five years as noted by Raymond James - is a key parameter for participants evaluating medium-term global LNG availability.
Summary
- Henry Hub futures rose about 5% to $3.21/MMBtu as of 11:08 a.m. EDT after reports of damage to Qatari energy infrastructure.
- Raymond James estimated the damage removed 17% of Qatars LNG capacity for up to five years.
- The EIA reported a 35 Bcf storage build for the week ended March 13 - the first injection of the year - bringing working gas to 1.883 Tcf, 47 Bcf above the five-year average.