President Donald Trump used his social media platform to predict weak fourth-quarter GDP results minutes before the official government release on Friday. At 7:50 a.m., he wrote that "The Democrat Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns!" The Bureau of Economic Analysis had scheduled the GDP report for 8:30 a.m.
The BEA's initial estimate showed inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, short of the 2.8% consensus forecast and a slowdown from the 4.4% pace recorded in the prior quarter. For the full year, the agency estimated U.S. economic expansion at 2.2%.
The agency highlighted that weaker consumer spending and trade activity were headwinds to growth in the quarter. In addition, the government noted that the shutdown that occurred during the three-month period subtracted roughly 1 percentage point from fourth-quarter GDP.
Markets reacted to the releases. The S&P 500 declined 0.25% following publication of the GDP figures along with concurrent data on personal income and spending and the personal consumption expenditures price index.
The timing of the president's social media message - posted about 40 minutes before the scheduled GDP release - is likely to draw attention because it preceded the official data. This is not the first instance in which the president publicly commented prior to market-moving announcements. On April 9, 2025, he posted "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!" on his platform hours before announcing a pause in tariffs that coincided with a market surge.
Context and implications
The BEA's Q4 numbers painted a picture of slowing momentum at the end of the year, with consumer spending and trade mentioned specifically as drags. The government shutdown that occurred during nearly half of the three-month period was singled out by the BEA as trimming about one percentage point from reported GDP.
Market response
Equity markets showed modest negative movement after the data and related economic releases, with the S&P 500 down 0.25% following the reports.
What remains clear from the data
The BEA's initial estimates place full-year growth at 2.2% while indicating a marked deceleration in the fourth quarter to 1.4% annualized, falling short of consensus expectations and reflecting the combined effects of spending patterns, trade, and the temporary federal shutdown.