Poste Italiane SPA reported a fourth quarter operating profit of €729 million, a result that exceeded analyst expectations by roughly 10% but was accompanied by net income that missed forecasts due to one-off charges and a higher-than-anticipated tax rate.
Revenue for the quarter came in about 3% above consensus estimates, while operating costs were roughly 1% higher than analysts had modelled. The group's net profit finished approximately 2% below projections, reflecting the impact of isolated items and elevated taxation levels.
Business-line performance
The company said its insurance arm was the primary driver of the quarterly operating outperformance, with insurance revenues running about 12% ahead of forecasts. Management attributed that upside largely to a higher release of contractual service margin. Despite the top-line surprise in insurance, the division's net profit missed expectations as finance costs were inflated by one-off items.
Poste's payments division also contributed positively, delivering operating profit roughly 20% above consensus on the back of stronger revenues and tight cost control. Conversely, the mail and parcel business underdelivered relative to estimates, with higher costs cited as the principal factor behind the shortfall.
Balance-sheet and flows
Total financial assets declined by about 1% versus the prior quarter. The company recorded net inflows of €0.2 billion into mutual funds and €0.6 billion into insurance products linked to former Eurovita Assicurazioni. Postal savings products attracted €0.6 billion in inflows, while overall deposits registered outflows totalling €5 billion for the period.
On regulatory capital metrics, Banco Posta's CET1 ratio fell to 19.8% from 20.5% in the previous quarter. The group's Solvency II ratio decreased to 304% from 312%. The reported leverage ratio was stable at 3.2%.
Capital returns and outlook
The board declared a full-year dividend of €1.25 per share, which is 3% above the consensus estimate of €1.21. An interim dividend of €0.40 was previously paid on November 26.
For 2026 the company guided adjusted operating profit above €3.3 billion and net income at €2.3 billion, figures that management said are in line with analyst expectations. The company flagged artificial intelligence as a lever to accelerate revenue growth and to improve cost efficiencies going forward.
Key takeaways
- Operating profit beat driven by insurance and payments divisions; overall net income pressured by one-off charges and higher taxes.
- Asset flows were mixed: mutual funds and insurance saw inflows while deposits experienced significant outflows.
- Capital ratios softened slightly quarter-on-quarter, though leverage remained unchanged.
Impacted sectors
- Insurance - results and capital metrics
- Payments and financial services - revenue and profitability trends
- Postal and logistics - cost pressures