Stock Markets February 13, 2026

PJM proposal could speed up power contracts between data centers and independent producers

Bring-your-own-generation option and a proposed backstop auction may push bilateral deals and industry consolidation, analysts say

By Priya Menon MSFT
PJM proposal could speed up power contracts between data centers and independent producers
MSFT

PJM Interconnection's recent proposal to manage growing electricity demand from data centers includes options for large users to supply their own new generation or to operate under a connect-and-manage regime that limits usage ahead of other emergency actions. Analysts say the plan - alongside a potential backstop capacity auction - could accelerate direct deals between data-center operators and independent power producers, while raising questions about permitting, state approvals and the capacity queue.

Key Points

  • PJM's proposal lets new large power users either build their own generation or operate under a connect-and-manage framework that permits pre-emptive curtailment ahead of emergency measures.
  • A proposed backstop capacity auction would be fast-tracked to reduce the risk of shortfalls across PJM's footprint, increasing incentives for direct bilateral deals between data-center owners and independent power producers.
  • Rising electricity demand driven in part by AI has already led to long-term supply agreements, and the PJM plan may accelerate deal-making and consolidation among IPPs, while facing permitting and interconnection constraints.

PJM Interconnection, the largest grid operator in the United States, issued a proposal last month that could reshape how major data-center customers secure power. The plan lays out two alternative pathways for new, large power users: either to bring new generation onto the grid themselves or to participate in a "connect-and-manage" framework that would allow operators to curtail consumption ahead of other emergency measures when system stress occurs.

In addition to those options, PJM's package proposes moving forward with a backstop capacity auction designed to supply additional power when needed across its footprint. Several elements of the proposal will require regulatory sign-off before they can take effect, but analysts focusing on industrial and power markets said certain provisions are likely to catalyze deal activity between data-center owners and independent power producers, commonly known as IPPs.


Deal acceleration driven by a "bring-your-own-generation" incentive

Analysts pointed specifically to the bring-your-own-generation feature as a potential accelerant for power contracts. James West, managing director at Melius Research, said he expects a wave of major announcements from independent power producers and large technology companies over the next couple of months as firms move to lock down generation arrangements.

"I would expect to see over the next couple of months a flurry of major data center-slash-power deals to get announced by the independent power producers, and the data center owners and big tech companies," West said.

The urgency for long-term arrangements is occurring amid rising U.S. electricity demand. The Energy Information Administration's January outlook cited in PJM's discussions projects power consumption to rise again in 2026 and 2027, after a second consecutive annual record in 2025, driven in part by rapid growth in artificial intelligence. That trend has already prompted data-center operators to seek secure, long-dated power supplies.

Recent examples of supply-side activity include Talen Energy expanding an existing partnership to provide Amazon Web Services with up to 1,920 megawatts of nuclear power, and Constellation Energy reaching an agreement with Meta Platforms to keep one nuclear reactor in service for another two decades.


Backstop auction and the "pay-or-play" dynamic

PJM said it has begun discussions on creating a backstop auction to help ensure sufficient capacity across its region. Separately, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has urged PJM to run an emergency power auction to shore up supplies. Analysts noted that the threat of being included in such a backstop mechanism could prompt data centers to pursue bilateral power contracts to avoid uncertain exposure.

Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, described the dynamic as a potential "pay-or-play" decision point. He said data centers that opt not to bring their own generation could still end up funding new generation without owning it, and that direct contracts with IPPs can be more hedge-able than remaining exposed to potentially volatile PJM capacity prices.


Consolidation prospects and industry responses

Some analysts expect the proposal to spur consolidation among developers. Smaller project developers may lack the balance sheet or capital to meet PJM's proposed new requirements, making them potential acquisition targets for larger IPPs that can offer packaged land, power and fiber for so-called "mega-sites." Rocco suggested that larger IPPs like Vistra, Constellation or Talen could look to acquire smaller firms to assemble integrated offerings.

Constellation Energy declined to comment on the proposal, while Vistra and Talen Energy did not respond to requests for comment.


Implementation hurdles and market frictions

Despite the prospect of accelerated contracting and consolidation, analysts cautioned that real-world constraints could slow implementation. Permitting challenges, requirements for state-level approvals, and a lengthy interconnection queue are among the obstacles cited.

"A 'flurry of deals' will be constrained by real world obstacles to get IPP infrastructure permitted and operating, and a long interconnect queue that will not disappear," said Rick Pederson, chief strategy officer at Bow River Capital.

Those constraints underline the gap that can exist between contractual commitments and operational readiness for new generation assets intended to serve large data-center loads.


Corporate measures and consumer concerns

Rising AI-related power demand has also prompted technology companies to consider the consumer impact of increased electricity consumption. The article notes that companies including Anthropic and Microsoft have announced initiatives aimed at limiting the effect of data centers on consumer energy prices.

Industry participants and observers will be watching how PJM's proposal moves through the regulatory process, and whether the incentives and backstop mechanisms described translate into faster bilateral deals, a wave of consolidation, or a combination of both - all while navigating permitting, interconnection and state approval hurdles.

Embedded within the broader discussion on capacity procurement is a question about who ultimately bears the cost of new generation - those that contract directly with IPPs or those that may be swept into a regional backstop mechanism. Analysts said that financial and operational considerations will drive different strategies across data-center operators and power developers as the market adapts.

Note: The article referenced a brief promotional query regarding MSFT contained within the source text asking whether investors should be buying MSFT right now; that element appears as a distinct promotional item and does not include further factual detail on MSFT's position relative to the PJM proposal.

Risks

  • Regulatory and permitting challenges - implementation of the proposal requires regulatory approvals and could be delayed by state-level permits, affecting timelines for new generation and contracted supply.
  • Interconnection queue and operational delays - a long interconnect queue and practical obstacles to getting IPP infrastructure permitted and operating may constrain the pace at which deals translate into deliverable capacity.
  • Potential market exposure for non-self-supplied data centers - data centers that do not secure their own generation could still bear costs through a backstop mechanism or volatile PJM capacity prices, creating financial uncertainty for operators and their customers.

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