Piper Sandler initiated coverage of Shopify with an Overweight rating and a $165 price target, saying the e-commerce platform is well positioned to capture ongoing migration to online commerce despite what the firm characterized as a not-cheap valuation.
Labeling Shopify its top pick among web builder platforms, Piper argued the company supplies foundational infrastructure for global commerce and multiple levers exist to sustain revenue growth and prompt upward revisions to analyst estimates.
Drivers behind the call
Piper highlighted three principal factors that underpin its favorable view.
- Merchant cohort strength - Piper's examination of Shopify's merchant cohorts led it to conclude revenue growth could outpace current Street expectations. The firm modeled Shopify revenue rising roughly 28% year over year in 2027, compared with the roughly 24% growth the Street currently expects. Piper pointed to notably stronger revenue from new merchant cohorts, estimating first-year cohort revenue climbed to about $980 million in 2024 from $370 million in 2022.
- Payments and financial services runway - The brokerage sees a substantial opportunity in payments and other financial services linked to Shopify's platform. Piper estimated that more than $50 trillion in global economic activity remains unaddressed for products such as Shop Pay and Shopify's point-of-sale system, implying payments penetration is still in an early phase. The firm also noted that add-on services like installments and Shopify Capital are currently offered in a limited number of countries.
- Enterprise and stickiness - Piper described Shopify as the "gold standard" for e-commerce platforms and said the company is increasingly engaging larger enterprise customers. Channel checks cited by the firm indicate merchants selling more than roughly 100 units per month face meaningful switching costs if they leave Shopify's platform. The brokerage also emphasized a sizable enterprise opportunity, observing that about 80% of the largest e-commerce sites continue to run on custom platforms or systems outside mainstream web builders.
Valuation snapshot
Piper noted Shopify shares trade around nine times the firm's 2027 revenue estimate and about 19 times gross profit. The brokerage added the stock sits near the 25th percentile of its valuation range over the past several years, even as it cautioned the current price is not cheap.
Context on data and tools mentioned
The write-up included references to services and tools that evaluate ratings and stocks. It described an AI-driven product that compares companies using a broad set of financial metrics and highlights stocks that offer compelling risk-reward profiles based on current data. Examples cited in that context included past winners like Super Micro Computer and AppLovin, with performance figures presented as examples of the product's historical outputs.
Bottom line
Piper Sandler's initiation frames Shopify as a leading platform with several paths to accelerate revenue through stronger merchant cohorts, a large addressable payments opportunity and continued expansion into bigger merchants. The broker's $165 target and Overweight rating reflect that constructive view, while its valuation commentary underscores that the stock is not inexpensive relative to future estimates.