Stock Markets February 9, 2026

Piper Sandler Flags Mixed Outlook for Dell as Component Costs Rise Ahead of Earnings

Analyst team cites AI-server strength but warns cost-plus model and memory price trends could pressure margins into FY27

By Jordan Park DELL IOT NTNX RBRK
Piper Sandler Flags Mixed Outlook for Dell as Component Costs Rise Ahead of Earnings
DELL IOT NTNX RBRK

Piper Sandler cautioned investors that Dell faces a mixed-to-concerning setup heading into calendar year 2026, citing rising component costs and margin risk despite execution strength in AI-server products. The firm expects FY27 revenue to start near $120 billion and flagged changing memory pricing dynamics as a potential headwind for hardware margins.

Key Points

  • Piper Sandler labels Dell's setup for calendar year 2026 as "concerning to mixed," noting execution strength in AI-server products but material margin risk.
  • Firm expects FY27 revenue to start at roughly $120 billion while highlighting that rising component costs could pressure gross and operating margins.
  • Off-calendar checks showed strength across several data infrastructure names - Rubrik, Pure, Zoom, Nutanix, and Cisco - with IOT, NTNX, and RBRK positioned for potential upside; Dell benefits from VMware partnerships and mid-market traction.

Piper Sandler's latest review of Dell has left the company in a nuanced position as it approaches its next earnings report. The firm acknowledged areas of solid execution - notably around AI-server offerings - but emphasized the challenges posed by Dell's cost-plus pricing model amid increasing component costs.

Led by analyst James Fish, Piper Sandler described the overall setup for Dell in calendar year 2026 as "concerning to mixed." The team estimated that growth could ramp above 30% in the quarter, representing roughly a 1-2% beat based on their inputs, yet they underscored risks to both gross margin and operating margin outcomes.

On forward revenue expectations, Piper Sandler stated that fiscal 2027 revenue is modeled to begin around $120 billion. That projection comes with a caveat: ongoing pressure on margins may constrain upside even if top-line trends show strength.

The broader enterprise and data infrastructure landscape provided contrasting signals, according to Piper Sandler's off-calendar checks. The firm reported relatively strong checks for Rubrik, a record for Pure, and solid reads for Zoom, Nutanix, and Cisco. It also noted that other names such as IOT, NTNX, and RBRK were positioned for potential upside during the year.

Within data infrastructure specifically, Piper Sandler pointed to Dell's partnerships with VMware and traction in the mid-market as strengths. Still, the firm warned that rising component costs and macroeconomic uncertainty could cap potential gains.

Pricing trends in memory were highlighted as a noteworthy variable. Piper Sandler observed that month-to-month DRAM price changes slowed to start 2026, while NAND month-to-month prices have accelerated through February so far. Those shifts in component pricing were flagged as factors that could influence hardware margin performance.

Despite the listed risks, Piper Sandler acknowledged momentum for Dell, calling it a vendor with net-positive momentum into calendar year 2026. That mixed character - execution and momentum on one hand, margin risks and cost pressures on the other - left the stock trading with some caution ahead of its earnings announcement.

Risks

  • Rising component costs - including recent DRAM and NAND price movements - could compress hardware gross margins, affecting the broader hardware and semiconductor-linked sectors.
  • Dell's cost-plus pricing model may create a tougher earnings setup compared with peers, increasing exposure to input price swings and margin volatility.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainty could temper demand and limit upside for enterprise IT and data infrastructure despite pockets of vendor momentum.

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