PayPal's recent share-price weakness has triggered unsolicited acquisition interest and prompted the company to hold talks with financial institutions, according to reporting that has attracted attention from sell-side analysts.
Bloomberg reported that PayPal has "fielded meetings with banks amid unsolicited interest from suitors." Analysts responding to that reporting have offered differing views on whether potential buyers will pursue the entire company or target specific business units.
Valuation and break-up math
Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat, referencing the report, said that "at least one rival is looking at the whole company, while other suitors have expressed interest in only certain PayPal assets." Rawat argued that current market levels make a break-up scenario credible, noting that "a SOTP-based valuation cannot be ruled out" at these prices.
Bernstein's illustrative valuations place Braintree in the $10 billion to $15 billion range, Venmo at roughly $5 billion, and PayPal's core business between $20 billion and $25 billion. The firm pointed to PayPal's "waterfront properties" - including Braintree, Venmo, 231 million monthly active users and reach across about 90% of online merchants - as reasons buyers are circling after the recent sell-off.
Who might buy what
Bernstein listed potential buyers for the full company as including private equity, while noting that large banks, big tech firms and American Express are "less likely but possible." The research note described Walmart as a "wildcard."
For specific assets, Bernstein highlighted J.P. Morgan and Stripe as the most plausible suitors for Braintree. Potential bidders for Venmo, the note said, include fintechs such as Revolut, traditional banks (citing JPM as an example) and American Express.
Industry views on strategic attractiveness and pricing
Wolfe Research analyst Darrin Peller observed that PayPal's assets retain strategic appeal, noting that branded checkout still accounts for "over half of PYPL's GP." Wolfe suggested a takeout multiple "could be at a few turns higher" than current market levels, implying potential upside in a sale context.
Not all analysts are convinced a buyer exists for the entire company. Truist's Matthew Coad argued that "the sale of certain assets is more likely than the sale of the entire business," adding that PayPal's size - "quite large at a $41bn EV" - complicates finding a full-company strategic buyer.
Gordon Haskett's Don Bilson noted constraints on the buyout universe driven by market capitalization. He wrote that "at $44, the company has a fully diluted market cap of $42bn and even though that is down $30bn from where PYPL was last summer, it still limits the size of the buyout universe to cruiserweights, heavyweights, super-heavyweights and Elon Musk." Bilson also pointed out it is "too late for someone to go hostile as the nomination window closed on January 21."
What these developments mean
Taken together, the reports and analyst notes sketch a range of outcomes: a full-company bid from a financial buyer, targeted acquisitions of assets like Braintree and Venmo by strategic or fintech buyers, or the sale of individual units if a comprehensive buyer cannot be found. Analysts highlight valuation mechanics, buyer appetite and PayPal's scale as central factors in determining which path, if any, unfolds.
Key details quoted in analyst notes and reporting
- PayPal has "fielded meetings with banks amid unsolicited interest from suitors."
- Bernstein values: Braintree $10bn to $15bn; Venmo roughly $5bn; core PayPal $20bn to $25bn.
- PayPal's assets include Braintree, Venmo, 231 million monthly active users and reach across about 90% of online merchants.
- Potential full-company buyers include private equity; large banks, big tech and Amex are "less likely but possible." Walmart was described as a "wildcard."
- J.P. Morgan and Stripe were called plausible suitors for Braintree; potential Venmo bidders include Revolut, banks such as JPM, and Amex.
- Wolfe: branded checkout accounts for "over half of PYPL's GP," and a takeout multiple "could be at a few turns higher."
- Truist: PayPal is "quite large at a $41bn EV," making a full-company buyer hard to find.
- Gordon Haskett: "at $44, the company has a fully diluted market cap of $42bn" and the nomination window for a hostile bid closed on January 21.