Stock Markets February 20, 2026

OpenAI Narrows Long-Range Compute Plan to $600 Billion, Reframes Growth to Revenue-Linked Spending

Company trims infrastructure ambition and presents a tighter capital-expenditure envelope as it forecasts steep revenue gains through 2030

By Priya Menon GOOGL
OpenAI Narrows Long-Range Compute Plan to $600 Billion, Reframes Growth to Revenue-Linked Spending
GOOGL

OpenAI has revised its long-term compute and infrastructure plan, telling investors it intends to limit total compute spending to about $600 billion through 2030 while forecasting revenue above $280 billion by the end of the decade. The adjustment scales back an earlier, more expansive infrastructure posture and arrives as the company approaches a potential funding round topping $100 billion and navigates intensifying competition and product pressure.

Key Points

  • OpenAI has told investors it plans to spend about $600 billion on total compute through 2030, a notable reduction from previously discussed infrastructure targets.
  • The company projects revenue exceeding $280 billion by 2030, expecting roughly equal contributions from consumer and enterprise divisions; 2025 revenue reportedly reached $13.1 billion, above an internal $10 billion target.
  • A major funding round that could top $100 billion is nearing completion with expected participation from strategic investors including SoftBank and Amazon; Nvidia is in talks to invest up to $30 billion, and a pre-money valuation of $730 billion has been reported.

Overview

OpenAI has revised the scale of its long-term infrastructure commitments, informing investors that it plans to spend roughly $600 billion on total compute through 2030, according to people familiar with the matter. The new figure represents a substantial downshift from the larger infrastructure targets previously discussed by company leadership.

Revenue targets and rationale

To underpin the large but reduced spending plan, the company is forecasting a sharp rise in top-line performance - projecting more than $280 billion in revenue by the close of the decade. Company forecasting envisions roughly equal revenue contributions from consumer-facing offerings and enterprise products to reach that total.

Those projections follow a strong 2025 showing, in which OpenAI reportedly generated $13.1 billion in revenue. That figure exceeded the company’s internal target of $10 billion for the year. The firm is simultaneously described as burning about $8 billion a year, figures that underscore the tension between rapid investment and current cash outflows.

Funding and strategic partnerships

The change in compute guidance coincides with near-completion of a historic financing round that could surpass $100 billion. Major strategic investors are expected to participate, with names such as SoftBank and Amazon cited as likely backers. Nvidia is reported to be in talks to invest as much as $30 billion as part of the round. If the financing were to move forward at the reported terms, the company would carry a pre-money valuation near $730 billion.

OpenAI’s leadership has emphasized a close operational reliance on Nvidia’s hardware, with the company’s CEO noting the importance of the chipmaker’s technology to its AI workloads.

Product pressure and usage trends

At the same time, OpenAI faces mounting competition on several fronts. Rivals including Google and Anthropic are pressuring the company’s flagship offerings, and the firm reportedly initiated a “code red” last December to intensify efforts to improve the core ChatGPT experience.

Despite competitive pressures and questions about profitability, usage of the chatbot remains at record levels. Weekly active users for the chatbot now exceed 900 million, up from about 800 million in October, indicating sustained consumer engagement.

Beyond general-purpose chat, OpenAI is continuing to invest in specialized developer-facing products. Its coding tool, Codex, has surpassed 1.5 million weekly active users, though it faces competition in the coding space from other vendors including Anthropic’s Claude Code.

Purpose of the recalibration

The principal stated aim of the revised $600 billion compute plan is to better align capital expenditure with forecasted revenue growth. By providing a more defined spending cap and timeline, the company is seeking to reduce investor concerns about open-ended capital consumption.

As the broader AI sector shifts focus toward the economics underpinning large models and services, the central question for OpenAI remains how effectively it can convert its nearly one billion weekly users into the revenue stream required to finance its ambitious plans and justify the new spending envelope.


Contextual notes

Information in this report reflects the figures and descriptions provided by company insiders and reported investor expectations. Where projection figures and partnership intentions were reported, they are presented here as described to investors and do not include independent verification beyond those statements.

Risks

  • Conversion risk - It remains uncertain whether OpenAI can translate nearly one billion weekly active users into the projected $280 billion revenue engine, impacting technology and digital advertising sectors.
  • Competitive pressure - Intensifying competition from companies such as Google and Anthropic creates product and market-share risk for consumer-facing and developer tools, affecting cloud services and enterprise AI adoption.
  • Financing and execution risk - The company is pursuing a very large funding round and faces significant capital burn (reported at roughly $8 billion annually); delays or unfavorable terms could affect investments across semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise software.

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