Investors are heading into a pivotal week that could shape near-term market direction, with Nvidia Corp’s quarterly report taking center stage amid lingering uncertainty tied to trade policy litigation and a flurry of tech earnings. The Supreme Court’s recent decision to overturn the broad tariffs enacted under former President Donald Trump initially lifted stock prices and Treasury yields, but left market participants confronting fresh questions about what alternative trade measures might be used and how refunds and litigation will be managed.
Beyond that legal overhang, Nvidia’s results will join a slate of technology-sector reports that together stand to influence an AI-sensitive market. Wall Street attention is particularly focused on software companies that face investor concerns their businesses could be disrupted by artificial intelligence.
Nvidia’s report and the market backdrop
Nvidia, which is the largest company by market capitalization, will release its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. The stock has been a key driver of recent market moves; it accounted for a 7.8% weighting in the S&P 500, underscoring how much a single company can move broad indexes.
Investors have strong expectations heading into the print because AI-related customers - commonly referred to as hyperscalers - have publicly announced plans to increase capital spending on data centers and supporting infrastructure that frequently rely on Nvidia’s chips. Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, said that the market has long anticipated outsized results from Nvidia, noting that "The expectation for outsized results for Nvidia has been a persistent theme over the past few years," and adding, "And so it’s hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise."
For the fiscal fourth quarter, consensus estimates compiled by LSEG project a 71% increase in earnings per share and revenue of $65.9 billion. Looking ahead to the company’s coming fiscal year, analysts on average forecast EPS of $7.76, a rise of about 66%. But the spread of analyst forecasts is wide; Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha, noted the range is "significant," with a low-end estimate of $6.28 and a high-end of $9.68, according to LSEG data. Otto summed up the valuation trade-off this way: "If the bulls are right, then the stock is looking probably not too expensive. If the bears are right...it’s not that cheap."
Comments on the company’s conference call by CEO Jensen Huang will be parsed for indications about demand and capital spending by major cloud customers. Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro, emphasized the importance of Huang expressing confidence in Nvidia’s large customers, saying, "Jensen has to come out and show his confidence in his own customers," and adding that Nvidia’s public support for its biggest customers has been a positive from the viewpoint of investors in the broader ecosystem.
Software earnings and broader tech themes
Alongside Nvidia, major software firms including Salesforce and Intuit will report results next week. The software and services segment of the S&P 500 has been under pressure this year, with the index down roughly 20% so far in 2026. King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management, said next week will be "pretty important for software," acknowledging that while the selling may in part be "overdone," some software companies "are ... going to have to find a way to adapt and innovate."
Other technology-related earnings on the calendar include AI infrastructure suppliers such as Dell and CoreWeave. Outside of the technology sector, retail heavyweights Home Depot and Lowe’s will report as the fourth-quarter earnings season winds down.
Market performance and rotation
The major indexes led by large-cap technology names have gotten off to a tentative start in 2026, and those megacap stocks that fueled the recent bull market are under pressure. Nvidia’s share price had soared over 1,500% from late 2022 through the end of last year, and as of Thursday it was up about 0.8% in 2026. By contrast, Microsoft shares were down more than 17% in 2026 and Amazon shares were off about 11% for the year.
Market participants note that underneath headline index moves there have been substantial divergences across sectors. Stocks in areas like software, wealth management and real estate services have been particularly hard hit amid worries they are susceptible to AI-driven disruption. At the same time, indexes have found support from a rotation toward sectors including energy, industrials and consumer staples.
Marta Norton described the market as "kind of a perplexing market," observing that "Everything that worked in 2025 is now having a hard 2026. And what was left behind in 2025 is working in 2026."
Calendar items and political developments
Investors will also be watching for remarks by President Donald Trump during the State of the Union address on Tuesday, an event that may further influence market sentiment amid the ongoing trade policy uncertainty following the Supreme Court ruling.
As the market digests next week’s company reports and political signals, analysts and investors will be keenly focused on guidance, capital spending trends among hyperscalers, and any commentary that helps clarify how AI investment is translating into demand and returns.