Novavax said on Thursday that it is increasing its adjusted revenue projection for 2026, citing anticipated milestone payments from vaccine supply and licensing agreements that management expects will counterbalance the effects of weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines.
The company now forecasts 2026 adjusted revenue in a range of $230 million to $270 million, up from its earlier outlook of $185 million to $205 million. Novavax noted that those figures do not include sales and royalties from its collaboration with Sanofi.
Management linked part of the demand pressure to a pronounced change in U.S. vaccine policy, noting that the shift has reduced vaccination rates and altered the regulatory environment for new shots. On that point, Novavax’s CEO said, "We probably disagree as a scientific community and an industry with some of their positions," adding that they "do see a pathway forward".
Recent regulatory developments involving a rival also drew comment from Novavax leadership. The company referred to an episode in which the U.S. Food and Drug Administration initially declined to review Moderna’s mRNA-based flu vaccine and then reversed that decision a week later after Moderna amended its application. "It was good to see them (Moderna) have a regulatory path forward for their flu vaccine," the CEO said.
Novavax flagged several contributors to its updated outlook and longer-term plans. The company expects to reach profitability by 2028 and cited planned product launches tied to its Sanofi agreement, including a COVID-flu combination vaccine that incorporates Novavax’s Nuvaxovid shot. In addition, Novavax last month licensed its Matrix-M adjuvant to Pfizer in a deal worth up to $530 million; the adjuvant is designed to enhance immune response to vaccine antigens.
Management also reported heightened commercial interest in the company’s platform, observing, "We have more interest than I’ve ever seen in three years in our tech and some great conversations going on."
On the results front, Novavax said fourth-quarter revenue rose 67% to $147 million, exceeding the analysts' average estimate of $78.84 million compiled by LSEG. The company posted net income of $18 million for the quarter, reversing a net loss of $81 million in the year-earlier period.
Outlook and considerations
Novavax’s upward revision to 2026 adjusted revenue reflects a recalibration toward milestone-driven cash inflows and licensing proceeds rather than near-term broad-based sales growth for COVID-19 shots. While the company is projecting a path to profitability by 2028 anchored on collaboration-driven product launches and adjuvant monetization, regulatory shifts and vaccination trends remain key variables to monitor.