Stock Markets February 19, 2026

Nippon Steel Says U.S. Steel Will Add Earnings Next Year; No Capacity Cuts Planned, CFO Says

CFO cites stronger steel prices, technology transfers and plant ramp-up while acknowledging high variable costs and refinancing needs

By Jordan Park
Nippon Steel Says U.S. Steel Will Add Earnings Next Year; No Capacity Cuts Planned, CFO Says

Nippon Steel's finance chief said the company does not plan capacity reductions at its U.S. Steel unit and expects the business to return to contributing earnings in fiscal 2026, helped by firmer steel prices, technology transfers and improved plant operations. The company is tackling a high variable-cost base and faces near-term refinancing deadlines on part of a bridge loan tied to its acquisition.

Key Points

  • Nippon Steel expects U.S. Steel to contribute to consolidated earnings in fiscal 2026, up from zero this fiscal year, driven by stronger steel prices and technology transfer.
  • Around 100 Nippon Steel employees were sent to the U.S. to transfer best practices and advanced technologies; the Big River 2 plant began operations in late 2024 and is nearing full capacity.
  • The company faces financing timing pressures - 1.3 trillion yen of a 2 trillion yen bridge loan requires refinancing in June, while 700 billion yen has already been raised through subordinated loans and similar instruments.

Overview

Nippon Steel’s finance chief, Takahiko Iwai, said the company sees no need to pare capacity at U.S. Steel and anticipates the U.S. business will contribute to consolidated earnings in fiscal 2026, compared with a zero contribution this fiscal year. Iwai attributed the expected improvement to stronger steel prices, the transfer of technology and operational gains achieved through recent investments.


Operational and personnel moves

Iwai noted that U.S. Steel’s operations have been improving as the effects of capital expenditure roll through the business. He said roughly 100 Nippon Steel staff were dispatched to the United States to share best practices and technology with the acquired operations. He identified plant upgrades as a driver of next year’s turnaround, citing the Big River 2 facility, which began operations in late 2024 and is now running near full capacity - a development that will have a full-year impact in the next fiscal year.


Cost structure and product mix

Despite the positive signs, Iwai highlighted U.S. Steel’s high variable-cost structure as its largest challenge, a legacy of underinvestment over prior years. Nippon Steel's plan is to complete a series of investments over four years aimed at increasing the share of high-margin, value-added products. Iwai said doing so should significantly enhance quality and cost competitiveness and help build a structure capable of sustaining profits even during market downturns.

He also remarked that the United States represents the world’s largest market for high-grade steel and is relatively less exposed to Chinese competition than some other markets - a factor that supports demand for higher-end product lines.


Financial considerations

Nippon Steel closed its acquisition of U.S. Steel for $15 billion in June after prolonged negotiations. Following the deal, the company lowered its earnings forecast for the U.S. unit to zero from an earlier estimate of 80 billion yen for the nine months to March 2026. Iwai attributed that revision to weak market conditions, buyers delaying purchases in response to U.S. tariffs, and transport disruptions caused by a recent cold snap.

On financing, Iwai said a 2 trillion yen bridge loan arranged for the acquisition remains in place, with 1.3 trillion yen of that facility facing refinancing deadlines in June. That figure does not include 700 billion yen the company has already raised through subordinated loans and similar instruments. Iwai said management is considering various options to address the upcoming maturities. He declined to comment on reports that Nippon Steel is considering selling as much as 500 billion yen of convertible bonds. ($1 = 155.2500 yen)


Outlook

Iwai did not provide a numerical forecast for U.S. Steel’s expected earnings in the next fiscal year, but reiterated that ongoing facility improvements and technology transfers are key to reversing the current zero-earnings outcome. While urgent measures are required to remedy the company's high-cost profile, he said capacity cuts similar to those implemented in Japan in the early 2020s are unnecessary because U.S. steel demand is growing.

Risks

  • High variable-cost structure at U.S. Steel stemming from years of underinvestment could undercut margin improvements and affect the steel and industrial sectors.
  • Market weakness, purchaser hesitation linked to U.S. tariffs, and transport disruptions can continue to depress near-term earnings for the U.S. steel business, impacting materials and manufacturing supply chains.
  • Refinancing risk for 1.3 trillion yen of the bridge loan due in June creates financial uncertainty until management completes the planned funding options, affecting corporate finance and capital markets exposure.

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