New Zealand's economy expanded in the fourth quarter, but by less than economists and policymakers had expected, official figures show. Statistics New Zealand reported that gross domestic product increased 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, short of the 0.4% consensus among analysts and beneath the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's own projection of a 0.5% rise.
On an annual basis, GDP climbed 1.3%, also missing forecasts which called for a 1.7% gain. The data point to a recovery that has begun to emerge after an extended spell of weak activity, but one that still leaves a significant degree of spare capacity in the economy.
The central bank, which has cut the official cash rate by 325 basis points since August 2024, left rates unchanged at 2.25% in February. In communicating that decision, the Reserve Bank emphasized that the recovery remains in its early stages and that growth is becoming broader across the economy. The Q4 GDP print aligns with that assessment, offering empirical support for the decision to hold policy steady.
Statistics New Zealand identified rental, hiring, and real estate services as the largest contributor to quarterly GDP growth, with that sector rising 0.8% over the period. That performance contrasts with the headline numbers and underscores the role of real estate-related services in driving the modest improvement.
Analysts and policymakers should note, however, that the published Q4 figures predate the onset of the Israeli-U.S. war on Iran and the subsequent spike in oil prices. As such, the data do not reflect any economic effects that may follow from those geopolitical developments and related energy price movements.
Context and implications
The Q4 outcome - growth that is positive but softer than expected - supports the Reserve Bank's framing of a nascent, broadening recovery accompanied by substantial spare capacity. The figures provide a near-term datapoint consistent with a cautious approach to policy, given that the official cash rate remained at 2.25% in February after a series of rate reductions totalling 325 basis points since August 2024.
Within the available data, the outsized contribution from rental, hiring, and real estate services highlights that particular segment's influence on headline activity during the quarter.