Morgan Stanley has quantified the payments networks' revenue exposure to travel flows to the Middle East and concluded the impact is modest. The firm estimates that each of Mastercard and Visa has approximately 1-2% of net revenues tied to that geography when measured against its total revenue base.
On a regional basis, Morgan Stanley’s breakdown assigns the Middle East 9% of global international tourism spending, 6.6% of international tourist arrivals, and 5% of US outbound travel. The bank applies those regional shares to the payments networks' cross-border mix to reach its revenue-exposure estimates.
Specifically, Morgan Stanley assumes 60% of cross-border revenue for Mastercard and Visa is driven by international travel while the remaining 40% is attributable to eCommerce. Using the 9% share for the Middle East applied to the firms’ 2026 cross-border revenue forecasts, Morgan Stanley calculates net revenue exposure of about 1.9% for Mastercard and 1.8% for Visa.
The firm also notes these calculations likely err on the conservative side because the networks’ travel-related volumes skew toward US-origin activity. When Morgan Stanley instead applies a 5% share reflecting US outbound travel to the Middle East, the estimates fall to roughly 1.1% of Mastercard’s total revenue and about 1.0% for Visa.
Given the small absolute scale of the exposed revenue base, Morgan Stanley expects that any slowdown tied to Middle East travel would be largely manageable through expense adjustments. The analysis highlights the networks’ expense flexibility as a mitigating factor against revenue volatility.
Beyond direct travel exposure, Morgan Stanley is monitoring broader potential headwinds that could influence transaction volumes and network revenue. Those include disruptions related to conflict, weather events, and the effects of a partial government shutdown. The firm also notes that higher prices could act as a countervailing factor, supporting nominal spend levels.
Overall, Morgan Stanley's view positions the payments networks as having limited revenue sensitivity to the Middle East travel market, with operational levers available to offset near-term demand swings.