Morgan Stanley revised down its estimate of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after conducting a full review of vessel position data. The bank reported that on March 12 no crude, refined product or LNG tankers were recorded exiting the Persian Gulf through the strait, compared with roughly 35 vessels in a typical day.
Previously the investment bank had indicated approximately 2-6 transits per day amid the disruption. Following the data review it now estimates closer to 0-2 vessels per day over the past 11 days. Morgan Stanley attributed the change to increasing noise in positional data since the conflict began, driven by elevated levels of AIS disruption and spoofing that have degraded the quality of tracking inputs.
The firm emphasized that the revision does not materially alter its market view. Whether flows have fallen by about 85% or nearer to 95%, Morgan Stanley said, movements through Hormuz remain drastically curtailed and the broader market implications are substantially the same.
Operational and security developments have also been reported. Secretary Bessent said the U.S. Navy could provide escort to vessels "as soon as militarily possible." Separately, press reports indicate the Pentagon is moving a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East. Those developments were noted alongside the shipping data but Morgan Stanley framed its adjustments primarily around degraded vessel-position signals.
For context, the bank noted that prior to the current disruption about 25 oil and LNG tankers typically transited the strait each day. Separately, Reuters sources reported that Saudi Arabias oil production cuts so far total around 2 million barrels per day, down from roughly 10 million barrels per day before the conflict. Reuters sources also said that Chinas Sinopec aims to cut refinery throughput by more than 10% due to shortfalls of crude supply.
To maintain transparency on tracking and risk, Morgan Stanley said it will continue publishing its daily tracker for another week. That output will include maps of tanker positions, transit metrics across vessel classes, freight rate information, and a timestamped summary of key developments and risks.
Summary
Morgan Stanley lowered its Strait of Hormuz transit estimates after a data review found no tankers exiting the Persian Gulf on March 12. The bank cited noisy positioning data caused by AIS disruption and spoofing and now estimates about 0-2 transits per day over the past 11 days, down from a prior 2-6 range. Morgan Stanley said the downgrade does not materially change market implications, and it will continue daily tracking for another week.
Key points
- Morgan Stanley recorded zero crude, refined product or LNG tanker exits via Hormuz on March 12 versus roughly 35 vessels normally - this affects oil and shipping markets.
- The bank revised daily transit estimates to roughly 0-2 vessels over the last 11 days, down from 2-6, citing degraded AIS and position data - relevant to freight rates and logistics planning.
- Security responses include the U.S. Navy offering potential escorts and reports of a Marine expeditionary unit deployment - this has implications for maritime security and insurance costs.
Risks and uncertainties
- Data reliability - elevated AIS disruption and spoofing create uncertainty in tracking actual vessel movements, affecting market signals for energy and shipping sectors.
- Operational security - military escort operations and regional deployments add uncertainty to shipping routes and insurance or freight costs in the energy and maritime segments.
- Supply-side shocks - reported oil production cuts and refinery throughput reductions increase uncertainty for crude availability and downstream refining margins.