Morgan Stanley has revised its outlook for global personal computer shipments in 2026, saying the market now looks set to contract by more than 5% year over year. The change follows unusually weak January notebook builds that, in the words of the firm’s analyst, represented "the biggest monthly miss since April '22."
In a Thursday note, the bank's supply-chain analyst reported that January 2026 "Top 5 notebook ODM builds missed MSe by 14%," a shortfall the team interprets as a first, concrete sign that the firm's "Cautious" stance on the memory supercycle is starting to show up in PC demand.
According to Morgan Stanley’s checks, the industry saw a meaningful pull-in of PC shipments by OEMs in the December quarter, followed by a slowdown in demand as consumers faced price pressure linked to memory pricing. The analyst summarized the consumer picture bluntly: "consumer PC demand is weakening due to higher prices."
January activity was notably weak at several major builders. The note highlights Quanta's roughly 30% build miss for the month. At the same time, original equipment manufacturers are said to be shifting their mix toward "higher-margin, higher-end PC shipments," a tactical response to the market environment.
Those dynamics feed directly into Morgan Stanley's near-term volumes. The firm now expects first-quarter notebook builds to drop 11% year over year, which it characterizes as the steepest quarterly decline since 2022. Under the team’s current assumptions, "total PC shipments decline 7% Y/Y in C1Q26." Applying normal seasonality for the remainder of the year, the bank calculates "we'd land at 8% Y/Y PC unit declines in 2026."
Given the January miss and the current trajectory, the note concludes the team is "inclined to believe 2026 PC shipments are likely to decline 10%+ Y/Y" unless there is a meaningful upside surprise in February or March.
The research also drew company-level inferences from the ODM data. Quanta’s January shortfall is flagged as a negative read-through for HPQ, while weak builds at Compal and Wistron are presented as indicative of softer trends for Dell.
Summary
Morgan Stanley now expects a more pronounced decline in 2026 PC unit shipments after January notebook ODM builds fell well below estimates. The firm reports an industry pull-in in the December quarter followed by weakening consumer demand amid higher memory-influenced prices. Key first-quarter and full-year downward revisions hinge on whether near-term builds recover.