Morgan Stanley has moved Freshpet to an overweight rating from equal weight and established a $90 price target, arguing the pet food maker’s topline growth likely bottomed in the fourth quarter of 2025 and should improve sequentially through 2026 as year-over-year comparisons ease.
The brokerage said shares, which have risen about 31% year to date, still trade more than 50% below their early 2025 peaks. At current levels the firm sees an approximately 2-to-1 risk-reward profile for the stock.
Morgan Stanley’s $90 target is anchored on a valuation of about 17.5 times calendar 2027 enterprise value to EBITDA, a meaningful increase from the roughly 13 times multiple it used previously. The analysts attributed the higher multiple to elevated peer valuations, clearer visibility on a sales reacceleration and a reduction in near-term competitive risk.
The upgrade note emphasizes a potentially overlooked revenue opportunity stemming from the continued expansion of same-day grocery delivery at Walmart and Amazon. Morgan Stanley said broader availability of Freshpet through these rapid-delivery channels could provide incremental sales support as the companies scale their grocery fulfillment footprints.
On guidance, Freshpet has issued a fiscal 2026 net sales growth range of 7% to 10%, versus a consensus figure of about 9.1%. Morgan Stanley considers the company’s guidance conservative and models 10.5% net sales growth, citing factors it expects will help drive sales: marketing support, expanded value-oriented product offerings and distribution gains at Tractor Supply.
The firm also pointed to a moderation in category competitive pressure. Morgan Stanley noted that consumer reaction to General Mills’ Blue Buffalo Love Made Fresh launch in late 2025 was muted, and interpreted that as reducing near-term risk to Freshpet in the fresh dog food market.
In summary, the bank said its upgrade reflects a combination of an improving top-line trajectory after a late-2025 trough, a conservative company outlook relative to the firm’s own forecast, and what it characterizes as an underappreciated benefit from increased same-day grocery availability through large retail partners.
Contextual note - The company’s stock performance year to date and its distance from early-2025 highs were cited by Morgan Stanley in framing the current investment case, along with the revised valuation multiple and the firm’s sales forecast versus company guidance and consensus.