Stock Markets February 18, 2026

Moody’s Projects Stronger 2026 Earnings Backed by Heavy Demand for Ratings

Company cites robust debt issuance and AI-driven corporate borrowing as tailwinds while stock remains under pressure from broad market selloff

By Marcus Reed SPGI
Moody’s Projects Stronger 2026 Earnings Backed by Heavy Demand for Ratings
SPGI

Moody’s issued a full-year adjusted earnings-per-share outlook that slightly exceeds analyst consensus, driven by higher demand for credit ratings amid increased bond issuance from major technology companies. The ratings unit posted solid fourth-quarter revenue growth, and the firm beat quarterly profit expectations, though its stock has endured declines earlier this year.

Key Points

  • Moody’s forecasts full-year adjusted EPS of $16.40 to $17.00, slightly above the LSEG analyst average of $16.38.
  • The ratings unit reported Q4 revenue up 17% to $946 million and Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.64, beating the $3.42 expected.
  • Sectors impacted include credit ratings providers, bond markets, and technology issuers financing AI investments; market sentiment also affects brokerages and financial services stocks.

Moody’s on Wednesday outlined a full-year adjusted profit-per-share forecast that surpasses analysts' consensus, wagering that continued appetite for credit ratings will persist as corporate debt issuance accelerates. The company’s shares ticked up roughly 2% in premarket trading on the announcement.

Company executives pointed to a pickup in the bond market, notably led by large technology firms increasing issuance to finance investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. That surge in borrowing has translated into stronger demand for credit ratings, bolstering revenue at rating firms such as Moody’s.

Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), the division responsible for credit ratings, recorded a 17% rise in fourth-quarter revenue, reaching $946 million. The firm also reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.64 for the fourth quarter, outpacing the $3.42 per share analysts had expected.

For the full year, Moody’s is projecting adjusted profit per share in a range of $16.40 to $17.00, above the $16.38 per share average forecast among analysts compiled by LSEG. The more upbeat guidance arrives even as the company’s stock has been impacted by a broader market selloff - a rout that moved from software companies to Wall Street brokerages seen as vulnerable to automation. Moody’s shares have dropped more than 17% so far in 2026.

Concerns about automation and technological disruption have weighed on valuations across parts of the financial sector, yet some market participants argue those effects could be tempered or offset. "By scaling decision grade, contextual intelligence that is embedded directly into customer workflows - across our platforms, third party systems, and AI enabled interfaces - we are expanding the ways in which Moody’s remains central to high stakes decision making," said CEO Rob Fauber.


The firm’s stronger-than-expected quarterly performance and its full-year guidance reflect a mix of rising rating demand and execution on the part of its ratings business. Still, stock performance has diverged from the operational results, reflecting investor sensitivity to sectorwide technology-driven disruption and recent profit projections from peers that have dented sentiment.

Risks

  • Continued market rout and investor concerns about automation have already pressured Moody’s stock, which is down over 17% in 2026, and could sustain volatility in financial-sector equities.
  • Negative sentiment from peer firms - earlier in the month, S&P’s shares fell sharply after it projected a weak annual profit - could weigh on investor confidence across rating agencies and related financial services.
  • The company’s outlook depends on sustained demand for ratings tied to elevated debt issuance; any slowdown in corporate issuance would constrain upside for rating firms and the bond market.

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