Monness, Crespi, Hardt reduced its rating on Coinbase to a tactical Sell on Thursday, arguing that consensus projections for 2026 and 2027 remain too optimistic and that the crypto exchange is likely to face additional quarters of weak demand.
The firm said it is cutting its estimates again, criticizing prior assumptions that a steady recovery would unfold during C26 as "foolish and facile given typical length and magnitude of crypto bear markets." MCH now expects the period of weakness to continue through the first half of 2026 and forecasts revenue, EBITDA and EPS below street consensus.
While MCH describes itself as "very bullish on Coinbase" over the long term, the firm emphasized that near-term headwinds leave the stock exposed, even after a roughly 50 percent decline since late 2025. The analyst house specifically called for downward revisions to 4Q25 assumptions, saying that "4Q25 estimates need to come in for both txn and S&S revenue."
Cycle dynamics drive the downgrade
The primary rationale for the downgrade is cycle-related. MCH noted that the firm is "128 days from the peak," and pointed out that prior crypto downcycles averaged about 350 days from peak to trough. Using trough-level multiples observed in 2022, when Coinbase traded at high-single-digit EBITDA multiples, MCH observed that applying those valuations to its 2026 estimates would imply a share price near $100 - roughly 20 percent below consensus.
The research team also flagged weakening competitive and user metrics. Coinbase's share of trading volume has declined over several months, MCH said, while tracked exchanges show "high DD declines" in monthly active users. The firm added that falling downloads and MAUs increase the prospect of more intense price competition.
MCH retains a $120 price target on COIN and suggested investors may find "better entry-points in future than waiting to recover our >$300 upgrade in late Fall 2025."
Summary points
- MCH cut Coinbase to a tactical Sell and lowered estimates for 2026 and 2027.
- The firm expects continued weakness through H1 2026 and projects revenue, EBITDA and EPS below consensus.
- Market-share erosion and declines in downloads and monthly active users raise the risk of more intense price competition.
Risks and uncertainties
- Duration and depth of the crypto downcycle - MCH highlights that past downcycles averaged about 350 days, and the firm is 128 days from the peak, indicating uncertainty about timing to trough.
- Near-term revenue revisions - MCH says 4Q25 transaction and services revenue estimates need to be cut, which could pressure short-term results for Coinbase and related market participants.
- Competitive pressures - Declining trading share and falling MAUs could intensify pricing competition among exchanges, affecting trading revenue and broader market dynamics.
For investors asking whether to buy COIN right now, the article notes that services such as ProPicks AI evaluate companies across many metrics to identify opportunities, but MCH's downgrade and its view of sustained near-term weakness underscore the firm's assessment that better entry points may emerge later.
This analysis reflects the views and forecasts provided by Monness, Crespi, Hardt as described above and does not introduce new data or external commentary beyond those supplied by the firm.