Stock Markets February 26, 2026

Mobico posts EBIT ahead of forecasts but flags slower growth in new guidance

Full-year operating profit tops estimates by 9% as divisions show mixed results; guidance points to a reduced growth trajectory

By Priya Menon
Mobico posts EBIT ahead of forecasts but flags slower growth in new guidance

Mobico Group reported full-year EBIT of £198 million, beating analyst expectations by 9%. Revenues for Remainco reached £2,760 million, a 6% increase but slightly below consensus. Management issued cautious guidance for the current year, forecasting EBIT between £195 million and £210 million and excluding potential upside from revised German Rail contract terms expected by June.

Key Points

  • Full-year EBIT of £198 million beat analyst consensus of £181 million by 9%, driven by a strong ALSA division performance.
  • Remainco revenues rose 6% to £2,760 million but missed the consensus of £2,774 million; covenant leverage was 2.7 times.
  • Guidance for the current year sets EBIT at £195 million to £210 million - mid-point implies 2% growth and is 3% below consensus; guidance excludes any benefit from revised German Rail contract terms expected by June.

Mobico Group (LON:MCG) delivered full-year operating profits that exceeded the consensus view, but its outlook for the year ahead signals a slowdown in growth. The company reported earnings before interest and taxes of £198 million, outpacing analysts' expectations of £181 million - a 9% beat on consensus.

The stronger-than-expected EBIT performance was underpinned by a record showing in the ALSA division, which recorded a 12% rise in revenues during the period. Overall Remainco revenues totalled £2,760 million, up 6% year-over-year but falling £14 million short of the £2,774 million consensus estimate. The group reported covenant leverage at 2.7 times.


Outlook

For the current financial year Mobico set an EBIT guidance range of £195 million to £210 million. At the midpoint this implies a 2% increase year-over-year, a marked deceleration from the 9% growth achieved in the prior year. The midpoint of the guidance sits approximately 3% below the consensus estimate of £208 million.

The company noted that the guidance does not factor in potential benefits from revised German Rail contract terms, with those changes expected by June. That exclusion leaves an element of upside contingent on negotiations or finalized contract terms.


Division performance

  • ALSA - revenues +12%, contributing strongly to the year-over-year EBIT outperformance.
  • North America - revenues +5%.
  • UK - revenues -6%.
  • Germany - revenues -2%.

Market reaction has been muted in light of the mixed message: while the full-year EBIT beat consensus, management highlighted a slower expected growth rate and shares remain significantly lower than a year ago, down 70% over the past 12 months.


The figures present a nuanced picture: improved operating profit against expectations in the most recent full year, uneven regional revenue trends across divisions, and a conservative near-term forecast that omits possible gains from pending German Rail contract adjustments.

Risks

  • Guidance indicates a slowdown in growth compared with the prior year - this may affect investor expectations and market valuation (impacts transport and capital markets).
  • Guidance midpoint is below consensus, creating downside risk if the company cannot deliver or if contract revisions do not materialize (impacts company credit and leverage considerations).
  • Uncertainty around the timing and impact of revised German Rail contract terms - expected by June but not included in guidance, leaving potential upside uncertain (impacts rail and public transport exposure).

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