Micron Technology rocketed more than 15% on June 24 after reporting very strong third-quarter results, sending the stock to an intraday record high of $1,255. Since that move the shares have retraced, finishing down 6.7% on Friday on volume of 86.4 million shares - nearly double Micron's three-month average daily volume of 52.1 million.
Despite the recent pullback, Jordan Klein, a TMT specialist at Mizuho, is advising investors to remain steady. Klein warns that two recent storylines could be wielded by skeptics to push shares lower this week, but he contends neither alters the underlying supply-demand case for memory.
The first of those headlines centers on reports that Apple is seeking US government permission to purchase DRAM from Chinese memory maker CXMT, a company that appears on the Commerce Department's Entity List. Klein frames Apple's interest not as a company-specific rebuke for Micron but as evidence of a broader industry shortage.
"DRAM and NAND supply is way below true end demand," Klein wrote, adding that this imbalance matters more for Micron and other memory stocks than isolated news such as Apple exploring Chinese DRAM options. He notes that Washington's willingness to authorize such a license is uncertain, and that China's own domestic demand for CXMT production is large enough that the government may be reluctant to redirect supply to overseas buyers.
Klein also points out that Micron has shifted its production strategy away from mass-market consumer chips and toward longer-duration agreements with hyperscalers for HBM and LPDDR products, alongside a growing focus on automotive and industrial customers. Given that repositioning, any potential Apple move away from existing suppliers would exert most pressure on Samsung and, to a lesser extent, SK Hynix.
The second narrative Klein cautions against overreacting to is the formal announcement by SK Hynix, Samsung and the South Korean government of a long-term semiconductor capacity expansion program that, in aggregate, would encompass roughly four new memory fabs. Klein characterizes the declaration primarily as political signaling rather than an immediate capital commitment; he notes that no binding funding decisions are expected this year or next. He further observes that Micron has already disclosed plans for four new memory fabs of its own, implying the Korean announcement may have been interpreted by the market as more disruptive than warranted.
Supporting Klein's contrarian take is a wider industry appraisal of demand. Apple CEO Tim Cook told the Wall Street Journal that the current memory shortage represents a "once in a century flood," a phrase that has been amplified across the tech community. Elon Musk reposted Cook's comment on the social network X and added that production-to-demand capacity gaps are "insane," underscoring similar concerns about strained supply.
Adding a concrete pricing element to the outlook, a Digitimes report published Monday suggests the market anticipates memory makers will seek sharp HBM price increases in the upcoming round of contract talks for 2027 - possibly raising full HBM pricing, including HBM4, to as much as 2.5 times 2026 levels. That annual pricing negotiation, which traditionally occurs each autumn, is the catalyst Klein highlights as most likely to move consensus estimates for 2027 across the memory sector.
For Micron specifically, the analyst community is already tilting bullish ahead of the next reporting cycle. Street consensus for Micron's fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings per share stands at $25.72 on revenue of roughly $43.58 billion. Notably, every one of the 25 analyst estimate revisions tracked over the past 90 days has been upward.
Micron's next scheduled earnings release is set for September 29, 2026. That timing dovetails closely with the seasonal HBM contract negotiations, concentrating two potentially significant catalysts - company results and sector-wide price discussions - into a narrow window in the autumn.
What to watch
- Whether Washington would approve any license allowing Apple to buy DRAM from CXMT and the extent to which China's domestic demand could constrain supply available to foreign buyers.
- Developments around contractual HBM pricing in the autumn, which Mizuho identifies as the most consequential near-term event for sector earnings estimates.
- Execution on planned fab expansions, including Micron's own four-fab blueprint and the announced Korean program, and the timing of any binding capital commitments.
The near-term narrative may be noisy, but Klein argues the market's path will be determined by fundamental supply tightness and the outcome of annual HBM contract negotiations rather than episodic headlines about buyer-supplier shifts or political signaling around capacity expansion.