Overview
Mizuho analysts said fundamentals at Coinbase Global and Robinhood Markets continued to decline as the ongoing crypto downturn reduced participation among casual traders and pressured revenue per trade. In a research note, the firm highlighted that as crypto prices fell, casual crypto traders - where take rates are higher - stepped away, and there is no clarity on when they will return.
Revenue mix and relative positioning
Mizuho argued Robinhood is somewhat better placed to withstand the pullback because more than 80 percent of its revenue comes from non-crypto sources, whereas Coinbase derives 100 percent of its revenue from crypto, according to the note. That distinction informed the analysts' assessment of each company's exposure to the current market slump.
Price-target revisions
The research team trimmed its price targets for both stocks, citing lower assumed Bitcoin levels. For Robinhood, the target was reduced to $135 from $172. For Coinbase, the target was cut to $170 from $280.
Management remarks and metrics
Robinhood's management told investors that with reduced market volatility, casual traders withdrew, while engagement from more active traders remained strong. They also noted that rebate rates began the year roughly five basis points lower than the fourth-quarter average.
Coinbase's management reported a decline in the platform's take rate to 142 basis points from 154 basis points. They attributed the drop to a change in mix, with more volume flowing to advanced products and to Coinbase One users.
Customer flows and longer-term monitoring
Mizuho drew attention to Robinhood's customer flows as a share of Schwab self-directed assets, which fell to about 26 percent in the fourth quarter, down from an average of roughly 34 percent over the prior seven quarters. The analysts described this metric as a key bogey that will be monitored into 2026.
Implications
The note frames the current environment as one in which lower digital-asset prices have led higher-take-rate casual traders to step away, reducing overall take rates and pressuring companies concentrated in crypto. The timing of any return by those traders remains unclear, the analysts said.