Mizuho on Thursday shifted its top equity pick from Airbnb to Booking.com following reporting that OpenAI is retreating from native ChatGPT checkout and redirecting purchases to partner applications such as Instacart, Expedia and Booking.com.
TheInformation reported that OpenAI determined users were using ChatGPT primarily for research rather than completing purchases in the chat environment, prompting a move away from on-platform shopping checkout. The report said only a small number of merchants were successfully live with the feature, and that OpenAI had to add merchants one by one. It also noted that the portal did not have sales tax infrastructure in place as of February. Shopify confirmed that, of its millions of merchants, only about a dozen were live with the checkout feature.
Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley argued that online travel agencies suffered the largest share of market concern over potential AI disruption and therefore stand to gain the most from a pullback of on-platform checkout risk. The firm identified Booking.com as the preferred pure-play online travel agency within the group and said it expects the entire sector to receive buying interest following the report.
The research house emphasized that conversion rates tend to be higher on dedicated eCommerce sites and expressed the view that the likely long-term pattern will favor click-outs and cost-per-click auction formats, drawing a parallel with the advertising and search auction model used by Google Search. Mizuho said it has heard from internet-focused investors who are preparing purchase lists in reaction to the news, highlighting online travel agencies, DoorDash and Google among the names at the top of those lists.
Beyond Booking.com and the online travel agency universe, Mizuho named Amazon, DoorDash, Zillow and Instacart as other companies that could see upside from the reported shift. TheInformation additionally reported that Etsy had been subsidizing merchant commissions to help seed the ChatGPT checkout experience.
The developments underscore investor attention on how AI product strategies and checkout mechanics could alter traffic flows and conversion economics across eCommerce, delivery and travel platforms. The report and Mizuhos subsequent repositioning reflect a reassessment of where consumers are likely to complete transactions - on dedicated merchant or partner apps rather than inside a chat interface.
Key points
- Mizuho moved its top pick from Airbnb to Booking.com after reports OpenAI is abandoning native ChatGPT checkout in favor of purchases routed through partner apps like Instacart, Expedia and Booking.com.
- TheInformation reported limited merchant adoption of ChatGPT checkout, manual onboarding needs, and a lack of sales tax infrastructure as of February; Shopify said only about a dozen merchants were live.
- Mizuho sees online travel agencies, DoorDash and Google among likely beneficiaries and expects the sector to attract buying interest following the news.
Risks and uncertainties
- The scope and permanence of OpenAIs shift away from native checkout are reported but not confirmed as a final strategy; investor responses may change if further information emerges - impacting online travel, eCommerce and advertising sectors.
- Limited merchant adoption and the absence of sales tax infrastructure as reported create uncertainty about the speed and scale at which any chat-based commerce model could become viable - affecting marketplaces and merchant platforms.
- Reports that some platforms, such as Etsy, were subsidizing commissions indicate experimentation and cost distortion that may not be sustainable - a risk for marketplace economics and merchant margins.