U.S. grain markets have seen a sudden upswing since the Iran conflict began, triggering a wave of selling from farmers who held back last year’s harvest amid earlier price weakness. Across the Midwest, growers who had kept corn, soybeans and wheat in on-farm bins moved to market those supplies to ethanol plants and large commodity traders while some also agreed forward contracts for crops not yet planted.
Producers have been delivering to buyers including ethanol firms and major trading houses such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge as futures climbed in recent days. The rally offered a welcome, if partial, financial relief to operators facing steep bills for fertilizer, crop protection chemicals and seed.
Farmers described a mix of opportunism and pragmatism as they liquidated stored grain. Dave Kestel, who farms near Manhattan, Illinois, said he sold roughly 40% of the corn and soybeans he harvested last year and about 10% of the crop he expects to harvest in 2026. Kestel noted that carrying last year’s crop into this year had carried daily storage charges, making the recent jump in values an incentive to move grain out of storage. "I was doing the farmer happy dance," he said.
Price benchmarks showed sharp moves. Soybean futures climbed to a May 2024 high above $12 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday. Corn futures rose to their highest level since May 2025 this week, and wheat traded at its highest point since June 2024. At times, corn and soybean prices have each been about 6% higher than levels prevailing before the onset of the conflict.
Last year’s price weakness had been driven by ample supplies and a pullback in soy exports linked to trade tensions with China under the previous administration. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has begun distributing $12 billion in aid intended for farmers who were harmed by that trade policy, providing a short-term boost to balance sheets even as analysts say it does not change longer-term profitability pressures.
Analysts and agribusiness leaders said farmers moved quickly to lock in revenue once values improved, mindful both of storage costs and uncertainty about how long the rally might continue. "We are basically filling all of our grain elevators in North America and in South America as we speak," Julio Garros, chief operating officer at Bunge, said during an investor event.
Market dynamics behind the rally are a mix of shipping and commodity linkages. A spike in crude oil prices connected to the conflict lifted demand and prices for crops used in biofuel production, supporting ethanol-related corn demand. Separately, disruptions to fertilizer shipments tied to the same geopolitical tensions helped underpin corn values as well.
Advisers who work with farm clients said the price moves often enabled growers to cover variable costs and in some cases secure modest margins, though breakeven levels differ by operation and input exposure. "When the market rallied big, it provided a lot of opportunities that they had been waiting for," said Angie Setzer, a partner at Consus Ag Consulting, noting that many of her clients sold corn, soybeans and wheat amid the rally.
Some farmers also took on forward sales for crops yet to be planted, accepting the trade-off between locking a price today and the production risk ahead. Keaton Lyons, who farms about 1,200 acres in Rensselaer, Indiana, said he has pre-sold approximately 100,000 bushels of corn he will soon plant. Lyons said he felt comfortable with the price level but acknowledged the uncertainty because the crop was not yet in the ground: "Pricewise, I feel really good," he said. "The thing that I’m nervous about is we don’t have a kernel in the ground and we’re 65% sold."
Regionally, the balance of unpriced grain varied by crop. Many growers had sold a large share of soybeans by late 2025, while a significant portion of corn remained unpriced, a pattern that meant the recent appreciation in values was especially helpful to operations that are more corn-heavy. As of December 1, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed growers were holding 14% more corn on farms than a year earlier and 2% more soybeans.
In Waseca, Minnesota, Richard Guse, who farms roughly 3,500 acres with his brother and son, said he sold about one-third of his 2025 corn crop to ethanol producer Guardian Energy this week at $4.25 per bushel, booking a small profit. "The prices have run up in a hurry," Guse said. "It goes down a lot faster than it comes up."
While the rally has generated quick sales and pockets of profit, farmers and industry observers emphasized that the gains do not eliminate the broader downturn many operators have faced. Rising input costs and variable cash-flow dynamics mean the sector remains sensitive to further price swings in both grain and the commodities that feed into production.
Summary: Grain prices have risen since the Iran conflict began, prompting many U.S. farmers to sell stored corn, soybeans and wheat and to pre-sell future crops. The price increase has allowed some growers to lock in modest profits to offset higher input costs, but it does not resolve wider economic pressures in farming.
Key points:
- Stored grain is moving to ethanol producers and large traders as futures rise.
- Higher prices have provided opportunities to cover rising fertilizer, chemical and seed costs.
- The rally has had a particularly notable effect on corn-heavy operations and forward contracting decisions.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Price volatility - It is unclear how long the rally will persist, leaving farmers exposed to potential downside.
- Production risk - Forward sales of unplanted crops carry the risk that future yields could fall short of expectations.
- Input-cost sensitivity - Continued high costs for fertilizer and other inputs could limit the benefit of higher grain prices.